Those planning to celebrate New Year's Eve in Tauranga and Mount Maunganui should keep a raincoat handy.
MetService meteorologist John Law said rain was likely late on New Year's Eve and early on New Year's Day.
"What we've got over the next few days is back into a northerly feed of air," he said.
"It's perhaps a bit of a wet start for Tauranga on New Year's Day but things get better. It looks like rain for New Year's Eve itself. Friday, Saturday and Sunday look like fine weather."
New Year's Day would see sunshine in the afternoon, he said.
"The days after that should get better."
Temperatures would still be warm.
"It will be quite muggy. We'll get temperatures nicely up into the 20s most days."
The temperature would sit about 22C or 23C.
The surf in Mount Maunganui and Papamoa so far this summer had been small but was likely to increase over the coming days, Mr Law said.
"We're probably going to find a good northerly swell coming through. I think it's going to be picking up."
Tauranga City Council communications adviser Emma Cottin said festivities at Mount Maunganui would go ahead even if there was a little rain.
"Cancellation would occur only if there were a safety risk [high winds] and the weather forecast doesn't indicate any such thing at this stage," she said.
Today: Morning drizzle then fine. Northerlies develop. High of 22C and low of 15C.
Tomorrow: Cloudy with showers, evening rain. Northerlies freshen. High of 22C and low of 17C.
Thursday: A few showers clearing. Early southwest dies out. High of 25C and low of 14C.
Friday: Long fine spells. Light winds. High of 23C and low of 14C.
- MetService as at 2pm December 29.