It was a warm and sunny start to spring. Photo/John Borren
It was a warm and sunny start to spring. Photo/John Borren
Spring could be drier than normal in the Bay this year, with Niwa predicting near equal probabilities of average and below average rainfall.
Niwa's latest seasonal climate outlook said there was a 40 per cent chance rainfall would be near average in the Bay of Plenty and a 35 percent chance it would be below average.
The outlook said there was a 45 per cent chance temperatures in the Bay would be near average, and a 30 per cent probability they would be below average.
Niwa forecaster Ben Noll said early spring was predicted to bring short-lived cold snaps after a relatively warm end to the winter season.
Noll said near or below normal rainfall was forecast for much of the country and an El Niño event was still developing.
"However the one we have coming on is a bit non-traditional so not like 2015-2016 or 1997-1998, those are the ones we remember as being strong," he said.
Noll said a cold spring was the least likely outcome but that did not mean there would not be cold snaps.
"Don't put away the winter jackets just yet or the heaters because those are things you might want to keep out for the next couple of weeks to months," he said.
MetService meteorologist Andy Best said the transition from winter to spring is expected to mean another unpredictable month.
"Spring is an ever-changeable month with the warming of land temperatures and sea temperatures cooling off," he said.
Despite the first day of September bringing sunshine to Tauranga, Best said a low pressure developing over the upper South Island was gradually moving north.
Best said north westerlies forming over the Bay of Plenty yesterday brought some possible heavy showers overnight to today.However, heavy rainfall was predicted to ease towards increasing fine spells throughout the week.
Tomorrow the low pressure was forecast to move over the North Island with cloudy periods for much of the Bay of Plenty.
"There will be showers which will become more isolated in the early afternoon," Best said.
Cloudy periods were forecast on Wednesday and Thursday, with just a few showers and southerlies remaining.
Tauranga's temperatures were expected to reach a maximum high of 16C on Thursday, while the rest of the week teetered between 14C and 15C.
Monday and Tuesday were expected to reach a high of 14C, while Wednesday was predicted to be slightly warmer at 15C.
Seventh Day Adventist School pupil Portia Persson, 6, among the daffodils. Photo/John Borren
