Water Safety New Zealand chief executive Daniel Gerrard said those numbers were "way over" 80 per cent of the 10-year average of 80 people.
"More than one-half to two-thirds of fatalities happen over summer, so we are looking at a really tragic year."
Gerrard said the focus needed to be put on personal responsibility, and people needed to think before they jumped in the water or went out on water vehicles.
"This is a collective responsibility ... if we don't want the horrendous year that we did last year, which we're well tracking towards, then we've got to start now and start talking about it, challenging people and their behaviour and asking everyone to help out."
Gerrard said people needed to think before they jumped in or around the water, were aware of the conditions, avoid alcohol, wear lifejackets and supervise young children.
He said drowning was "a male problem" with more than 80 per cent of fatalities being male with the over-55 group being the most concerning and hard to reach.
Māori were also over-represented, making up one-third of the statistics while only making up 17 per cent of the population, he said.
Gerrard said a big part of this was risk-taking during kai gathering, and Water Safety New Zealand was doing targeted diver education and supporting marae-based kai gathering.
Eastern Region Lifesaving manager Chaz Gibbons-Campbell said Tauranga lifeguards carried out 10 rescues and four assists last weekend, with three people either self-rescued or rescued by members of the public.
All of the rescues involved surfers who were swept out by strong currents near Moturiki Island where the natural rock features form a strong boundary rip current.
The TECT rescue helicopter also responded to a report of a child on a bodyboard, swept out by strong currents. The child was rescued by someone on a jet ski.
Gibbons-Campbell said all red and yellow flags will be raised on Mount Maunganui, Omanu and Pāpāmoa beaches this Labour weekend when the lifeguarding season officially gets underway.
They will continue to patrol each weekend until Easter.
A Niwa media spokeswoman said current sea surface temperatures are around 15 to 16C, about 0.5 to 1.0C above average for the time of year.
"Over summer, sea temperatures may rise well above average, but it's too early to say by exactly how much," she said.
"We are monitoring the risk for another marine heatwave event."
A Tauranga Volunteer Coastguard spokesman said it expected to attend about 70 on-water incidents in December and January.
So far in 2022, it has responded to 148 incidents, assisting 389 people safely back to shore (an average of nine people every week).
This month, it responded to seven incidents and helped 20 people to safety, on par with October last year.
Last year was a record year, and the volunteers responded to 218 incidents, almost double that of 2016.
With the historically strong heatwave predicted this summer, he said he expected to see a lot of different vessels taking to the water and asked people to "be prepared before you head out".
Coastguard Rotorua Lakes president Jeremy Doorman said it has responded to 17 incidents, helping 35 people to safety this year.
He said boating on lakes was different to open water and it was vital for boaties to respect local bylaws and understand the navigational hazards under the surface before heading off the ramp.
Coastguards have urged people to check batteries were properly charged, fuel was clean, there were two forms of waterproof communication, checking the weather, a lifejacket for everyone, and trip reports were logged.
This could be done on the free Coastguard app on VHF channel 01 in Tauranga and channel 02 in Rotorua.
Hato Hone St John Western Bay of Plenty area operations manager Mat Delaney said many water-related incidents it attended were preventable, and alcohol was often involved.
He said to stay calm and get help immediately if you saw someone in trouble in the water, and alert any lifeguards on duty or seek out others to help.
If it's safe, he advised people to get the person out of the water and check if they were breathing and had a pulse. If there's no pulse, start CPR immediately and ensure someone has called 111 for an ambulance.
The public is asked to check safeswim.org.nz for the latest on beach conditions, local hazards, and safety alerts, and see when lifeguards are on patrol.
What is a preventable drowning fatality?
Preventable drowning fatalities is where water safety sector intervention could have had an influence (for example where the victim was boating, swimming, diving).
Beach safety messages
• Choose a lifeguarded beach and swim between the flags
• If caught in a rip, remember the 3Rs: Relax and float, Raise your hand to signal for help and Ride the rip until help arrives or you can swim back to shore
• Read and understand the safety signs
• Know your limits - don't overestimate your ability or underestimate the conditions
• Keep children within arm's reach at all times
• Get a friend to swim, surf or fish with you
• When rock fishing, always wear a lifejacket and shoes with grip, never turn your back towards the sea
• If in doubt, stay out
• If you see someone in trouble in the water, call 111 and ask for the police
