Warm, dry summer for the Bay

German exchange students, Marlene Erning (front) Franzi Buchner (left) and Hetti Flotho enjoy the summer sun at the Mount Beach. Photo by John Borren. 02 Dec 2014

A warm, dry summer looks likely in the Bay of Plenty accoring to NIWA's latest seasonal climate outlook.

The forecast is for average or above average temperatures from January to March.

NIWA forecasters said there was a 40 per cent chance of below average soil moisture and river flows and a 35 per cent chance of being near average.

Despite the dry outlook there was a 40 per cent chance rainfall would be near normal and a 35 per cent chance it would be above average.

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained steady during December at above conventional El Niño thresholds but not all atmospheric indicators were yet consistent with El Niño development.

International guidance indicated that the chance for weak El Niño conditions between January and March was about 70 per cent.