Drone warfare has proven to be a gamechanger in the Ukraine conflict. Photo / Getty Images
By Phil Pennington of RNZ
Ukraine has approached New Zealand about a deal to build military drones, in a new push to sell its Russian-killing technology around the world.
Ukraine has 20 countries interested and four signed agreements on drones, including Germany, Canada, Norway and Japan.
Ukraine’s ambassador to New Zealand and Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, said his country could offer unique drone innovation and he had raised it several times with the Government.
“They have the proposal on the table,” Myroshnychenko said on Friday.
The Government said no decision had been made to an approach on drones in December, but officials were considering it.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has recently made statements that have been seen as a key step in defence diplomacy by Kyiv, leveraging the fact that the world had witnessed uncrewed systems rewriting the rules of warfare in both the Russian and Iran conflicts.
Many countries around the world have ramped up demand for drones this year – including both Australia and the United States, which last month revealed a new US$54 billion ($90b) plan to build a Defence Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG).
Myroshnychenko said he did not need to raise the issue again in New Zealand.
“It’s up to New Zealand Government” to consider either before or after the November elections, he told RNZ.
“That’s what we are now doing with a number of international partners and certainly would be open to discuss it with the New Zealand Government.
“Certainly we would be open for it and we do believe that we could assist and we have some of the innovation which is only available in Ukraine, and we would be happy to work jointly on this investment together.”
CBS reported last week that the US and Ukraine had drafted a deal to allow tech exports for the manufacture of drones in joint ventures with American companies.
Ukraine has been sending drone interceptors to the Middle East to combat Iran’s Shahed drones – which Russia has used against Kyiv.
“We are ready to deliver,” Zelenskyy said last month on X after doing deals with Middle East governments. “We want to help them defend themselves.
“First, our expertise. Second, training missions and software to integrate different military equipment into one system. And cheap drones and co-production lines to make them ... I think all of this needs to be shared with the US as well ... We wanted to sign a big drone production deal with the United States, but we needed the approval from the White House.”
Myroshnychenko said a starting point was a bilateral security agreement – 28 countries had signed one with Ukraine.
“New Zealand is not one of those, but certainly we’d be keen to discuss it if they’re interested,” he said.
“Those countries who signed those agreements are now also signing drone agreements, or drone deals, as we call them. A drone deal is a starting point for creating those joint ventures in a way, because at the moment there is a ban on the export of any weapons or any defence technology out of Ukraine.
“But we’re trying to figure out a way how to release that technology. And for that, we need both governments to be on board.”
He said he had raised a drone deal with senior officials and former Defence Minister Judith Collins, and with her successor Chris Penk in December.
Penk at the weekend confirmed the approach.
“Those matters remain under consideration by defence officials and no decisions have been made at this stage,” Penk said in a statement.
“I look forward to receiving further advice in due course on potential next steps.”
Penk told RNZ last month that drone spending was at the right level, although the country had to make sure it did not fall behind.
Myroshnychenko said Australia was expected to sign a bilateral security deal with Ukraine later this year.
“So certainly Australian, New Zealand government knows that there is a proposal to sign this long-term bilateral security agreement that could be a foundation for a drone deal.”
Geopolitical analyst Dr Del Carlini of Wellington said there was no time to waste with signs of a new world war approaching.
“We should be putting a billion dollars of our defence spending into a joint venture with Ukraine to learn how to produce drones to manufacture them here and then to have them used – in Ukraine at the moment, could be in the Middle East,” Carlini said.
“But most importantly we know how to manufacture them and whatever the type of drone we need at some point in the future we know how to manufacture it, not purchase it ... when warfare actually kicks off.”
Spending billions on frigates – as was intended in the Defence Capability Plan in the decade ahead – would be a waste when the Iran war had shown how quickly Tehran’s Navy could be taken out of play, Carlini said.
Sovereign domestic production featured in Australia’s new plan to invest $14-18b on drone and counter-drone technologies over the next decade.
Thai geopolitical analyst Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak in Wellington last week also warned of signs of war spreading.
Myroshnychenko said New Zealand firms stood to benefit from a drones deal.
“Any joint ventures, you need a local producer and you have one of those companies in New Zealand ... catering to your needs, but also catering to some of the needs of ... region, of the like-minded countries, including Australia.”
Mount Maunganui firm Syos makes drones that have been used in Ukraine and by the British armed forces.
But Philip Solaris – who has made drones for more than a decade at Obsidian Systems – said while he backed anything that helped Ukraine, a drone joint venture was not the way to go.
“The money would be better invested in New Zealand and Australia,” he said.
Not only was Ukraine a different operating environment, but he drew a different lesson from autonomous warfare there.
“There’s a lot of small companies throughout New Zealand that have really key parts to play in such a situation.
“Ukraine has been forced into doing that, and you’ll find that actually their defence industry is largely made-up from a lot of small players, not just a few big primes.”
Solaris said he had talked to Penk about his belief that getting the industry’s logistics right was the prime lesson from Ukraine. On that score, Budget 2026 needed to deliver not necessarily more money for drones, but a better, faster system for spending it.
“New Zealand and Australia already have the technological capability and the innovation and the know-how of how to do what is being done there,” Solaris said.
“So I don’t think the issue is around technology. I think that in many ways you may be talking about more of a political issue.
“The capability is there. It’s how it is developed and how it is employed. And we need to be building our own infrastructure.”
Drones fit under the military emerging technology banner, and a key deal for sharing that type of tech for New Zealand’s main security partners is Aukus.
Under its Pillar Two, the three nuclear-sharing Aukus Pillar One members – the US, Australia and the United Kingdom – have recently lowered barriers to sharing or trading in arms technology. But the NZ Defence Force has had far fewer meetings about the option of joining Pillar Two in recent months than previously.
Myroshnychenko said he had not been briefed on Aukus, and the issue of whether it was a barrier to drone deals was a matter for the Australian Government.
The question was how to restore the international rules-based system and build deterrence together, he said.
Russia was belligerent and training North Korea, he said.
“So it’s all happening here in the region ... The impact of this war and the implications of this war on the Indo-Pacific are pretty clear.
“You know, if New Zealand Government is interested, we’d be very keen to follow up on this and work on this together.”
Penk said drones was one area of potential areas of co-operation and New Zealand remained steadfast in support for Ukraine.