TOP STORY: Booming Tauranga may overtake Dunedin

By Graham Skellern
Fast-growing Tauranga's population has soared by a third in the past decade and it is now breathing down Dunedin's neck to become the fifth largest city in the country.
But Tauranga's hopes of one day becoming one of the four main centres looks unlikely as Hamilton is also experiencing a growth spurt and has already passed Dunedin's population.
The provisional figures from this year's census show 104,700 people are living in Tauranga city - 26,380, or 33 per cent, more than 10 years ago.
And the census figures also reveal that the burgeoning coastal strip of Papamoa has suddenly become the biggest suburb in Tauranga, outstripping Otumoetai.
Papamoa has grown nearly 40 per cent since the 2001 census and now boasts 16,600 people, whereas Otumoetai (including Brookfield) has only increased to 15,260 from 14,367.
Interestingly, the number of occupied dwellings in Papamoa rose only 17 per cent in the past five years from 4395 to 5150, while Pyes Pa surged 76 per cent from 612 to 1080.
Pyes Pa also had the largest rise in population, a jump of 62 per cent from 1785 to 2890.
The other developing areas, Welcome Bay and Bethlehem, have population increases 46 per cent and 29 per cent respectively - and the number of occupied dwellings in Bethlehem grew by nearly a third over the past five years.
On the latest figures, Tauranga is still the country's sixth-largest city ahead of Palmerston North with 75,800 people. New Zealand's population is provisionally counted at 4,116,900, up 296,150, or 7.8 per cent, since the 2001 census.
The big Auckland region grew 12.4 per cent in the past five years to 1,318,700 - or 32 per cent of the national population.
On growth trends, Tauranga is sure to overtake a static Dunedin before too long.
Over the past 10 years Dunedin's population has only risen 2500 to 122,200 - and Hamilton has jumped ahead to 131,700 from 110,658 in 1996.
Jacques Poot, professor and director of population studies at Waikato University, said that, based on the growth rate it was pretty reasonable to expect a crossover between Dunedin and Tauranga.
But he doubted whether Tauranga would catch up to Hamilton in a hurry. Both cities were reaping the spillover effects from Auckland.
Prof Poot said there were also people of all ages moving south from Auckland to look for cheaper housing. The fringes of Hamilton were doing very well, he said. There was plenty of growth in lifestyle blocks and new subdivisions that were attracting the Aucklanders.
"They continue to say the four main centres are Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin and they still don't accept Hamilton. I think Tauranga has longer to wait," said Professor Poot.
Tauranga Mayor Stuart Crosby said the city's population was right on the SmartGrowth predictions - "that's what we expected. The growth is going to continue and we are now spending a lot of time on managing it.
"This includes connecting with the Western Bay district, planning service deliveries and building infrastructure together."
Mr Crosby said the Western Bay region, through SmartGrowth, now had a clear vision of where it was heading - that was not the case six years ago.
Tauranga city had grown up dramatically over the past three years, he said. The population increase has turned it from a large town to a buoyant city. "People are coming in here with fresh ideas and approaches and a higher expectation of the city's place in the sun. What we must remember is that we can't just rely on population growth - we need economic growth in terms of exporting and manufacturing," he said.
The SmartGrowth plan predicts 218,000 people will be living in the Western Bay region by 2026 and 289,000 by 2051.
This would be a 120 per cent increase on the 2001 population - and by then there would be 70,000 more households and 60,000 new jobs would be required.
Based on Census 2006, the Western Bay district has reached 42,400 from 35,289 in 1996 - an increase of 20 per cent. And the region from Waihi Beach to Maketu now houses 147,100 people. Te Puke's population grew more than 6 per cent to 7150 in the past five years, Omokoroa 14 per cent to 2200 and Katikati 21 per cent to 3460.