Covid-19 will continue to dominate in 2022. Photo / NZME
Covid-19 will continue to dominate in 2022. Photo / NZME
This time of year people who like to comment or have an opinion and have vehicles for these views like to predict the coming 12 months.
Of course, we are mostly off-beam as no one really has a handle on the future, even that old columnist Nostradamus.
Anyway, I've given the old crystal ball a rub - 2022. Predictions.
Internationally, in the US the Democrats will lose control of one of the two houses of government in the upcoming mid-term elections, making Biden completely impotent as president.
Republicans are out in force, probably actually wanting power or showing that they want power more than the Democrats.
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President Putin of Russia will continue to apply pressure in Ukraine, he has proven before he never backs down and knows neither Nato nor America will do anything other than splutter and jump up and down. As for the United Nations, who cares?
Taiwan will become part of China again. Again the West will do nothing. This is not the West's fight and no one will risk all-out war with China over what they regard as an internal matter.
In the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson will be thrown out by his own party, recognised even by the Conservatives as the completely inadequate leader that he is.
Covid will continue to mutate around the world, hopefully into less harmful strains and eventually into oblivion.
Nationally, it will be another year of Covid, with Omicron spreading through the community but without the dire results.
At over 90 per cent vaccinated, 5- to 11-year-olds getting jabbed and boosters starting we may weather this coming year better - but Covid will still dominate our lives with controlled borders, no international tourism of any note, masks everywhere.
Politics could be interesting this year. I predict Judith Collins will resign from Parliament to chase the Auckland mayoralty. A Wellington-based Labour MP will also be after the Wellington mayoralty.
The centre-left will continue to dominate politics for the year. The Greens will become increasingly frustrated with Labour, who will do just about anything to keep those 400,000-odd centre voters who gave them unbridled power in 2020, including paying lip service to climate change.
The Labour Government, who mostly live in the real world, know that middle- and working-class New Zealanders, while probably believing in climate change, have no appetite for emission-trading schemes and other plans to further complicate their lives when just trying to either repay huge mortgages or pay usurious rents alongside raising their children and paying the bills.
We should be expecting to hear from Minister Willie Jackson about his chat with the Iwi Leaders Forum about He Puapua, that discussion document that has exercised the pens of commentators and letter writers so much in the last year. We will not hear from him.
He Puapua will be on the back-burner until 2023. If any of the contents of the discussion document are to make it to the stage of policy, Labour knows it will have to go to the country in an election to test the waters.
Rob Rattenbury. Photo / NZME
Jacinda Ardern and company really want time to think about that. There may be a period of intense education about the issues raised to try to get a consensus first, but not this year.
Luxon will steady the National ship, consolidating his position and getting rid, in subtle and not-so-subtle ways, of deadwood and back-stabbers.
Act will sink back to where it belongs, a minor inconsequential party, there to really just make up the numbers.
National will come back, without doubt, from a very sad time. It will be a huge contender in 2023.
Jacinda Ardern will marry. Her star is on the wane and she knows it. She will likely continue as Prime Minister this year but may do a "John Key" if she has the opportunity for a plum job at the United Nations in New York, bringing her kindness and charm to the world.
She is a ruthless career politician so knows the rules. She has had a challenging period as Prime Minister and must surely be planning ahead.
Grant Robertson will take over, our first openly gay Prime Minister, if Ardern does resign early. He will do a good job and will lead Labour into the 2023 election with confidence.
The All Blacks will continue to struggle for form for whatever reason but the Black Caps will continue to shine and delight.
That's a few of my more rational picks for the next 12 months or so. Our world and humanity will stumble on as usual.
