Te Manawa ō Pāpāmoa School principal Shane Cunliffe. Photo / Emma Houpt
Most schools in Tauranga are preparing for expanding rolls this year, with estimates showing almost 80 per cent will see a boost in students.
Provisional data from the Ministry of Education shows of the 67 schools in the area, 52 are set for an increase compared to last year.
The provisional figures are estimates and may change, while the 2022 numbers are based on school roll returns from July 1.
The 2023 forecast roll for Te Manawa ō Pāpāmoa School was 333 - an increase of 124 students compared to the July roll return.
But the school’s principal Shane Cunliffe expressed frustration over the ministry estimate, as he believed they would take on a “way higher” number of new enrolments. He was worried this would leave them short-staffed as the year progressed.
The Ministry of Education has said the school’s estimated roll was calculated using population projections and predicted housing development growth.
Cunliffe expected to start 2023 with a roll of around 290, saying this could climb “closer to 400″ by the end of the year.
The new school opened in Term 1 last year, with 185 students and 13 teachers. They were starting this year with 15 teachers, he said.
“We have got enough staff to start the year, but we will be in trouble as we grow,” he said.
“They spend all this money building a school trying to respond to the growing needs of a community, yet they are unwilling to actually resource it.”
He said it could take up to 12 weeks to employ a teacher, and believed staffing levels should be adequate at the start of the year so “you are not playing catch up”.
“I just don’t think it’s good enough.
“We are tasked with building a school, a community, a culture from scratch. Yet if we don’t have the staffing to enable that to happen - it puts you behind straight away.”
He said the school did not have enough teachers in 2022, meaning the two deputy principals were “in the classroom teaching” for about half of the year.
Last year, the school took on about 60 entrant students and also saw “quite a bit” of growth in the senior school, he said.
He said the ministry needed to “look at the whole picture”, including the number of children attending early childhood centres in the area and wider population growth.
“They need to be using that data proactively - [gaining] real insight in terms of how many little people are going to be coming through the education system.”
Cunliffe said he thought the school, which could cater for 650 students, would be “close to full” over the next five years as more housing was built in the area.
Jocelyn Mikaere, Ministry of Education hautū [deputy secretary] Te Tai Whenua [Central], said it would reach out to Cunliffe to discuss his concerns.
Mikaere said the school was guaranteed staffing of a minimum of 17.70 full-time teacher equivalents (FTTE) based on this year’s provisional roll of 333, plus non-roll-based staffing of 0.73 FTTE.
She said if the school’s roll grew beyond the level of staffing provided, the school could submit a staffing roll change request for further staffing if its permanent daily roll had increased and stayed at that level for two school weeks.
If the actual March 1 roll is higher than the provisional roll of 333, staffing and funding will be increased accordingly.
She said the formula for determining schools’ staffing is primarily driven by the school type, the number of students at each year level and a given ratio for each year level.
She said generally, student numbers were reflective of population trends in the various areas of Tauranga – they were growing in some areas and stable in others.
Tauriko School principal Suzanne Billington was expecting to see the school’s roll decline this year.
This was due to traffic outside the school on State Highway 29 becoming “quite an issue” and roll growth at the nearby Taumata School, which opened in 2019, she said.
Provisional figures for Tauriko School estimated a roll of 266 - down by four students on July’s roll return.
She said this was of concern because it could impact staffing levels, and the school was “well-equipped” to cater for more students.
Billington, who was also president of the Western Bay of Plenty Principals’ Association, said there was a “general trend” of roll growth for schools across the region which would continue as the population increased.
But she said some schools would likely see rolls decline this year as community demographics changed.
Bethlehem College principal Larne Edmeades said it would start with a roll of 1840 children between Year 1 and Year 13 across the Tauranga and Rotorua campuses. This did not include international students, he said.
The school’s forecast roll for 2023 was 1828. That was a 50-student decrease compared to the July roll return.
He said the area school enrolled new-entrant students during the course of the year, hence the need “to be careful in making year-start and mid-year comparisons”.
He said the school had waiting lists up to Year 11, and their monitoring showed increasing interest and support for special character education amongst families.
Ministry of Education operations and integration acting leader Helen Hurst said when setting school’s provisional rolls, it looked at their historic rolls to identify any “significant trends in roll growth or decline”.
Network activity, local intel, roll forecasts and teacher supply were also taken into account when settings schools’ provisional rolls. This ensured the ministry had “a complete picture of how the provisional rolls will impact schools and the reasons for any changes”.
In September of each year, the ministry sets schools’ provisional roll, staffing and indicative funding entitlements for the following year. Once advised, schools can request a review if they have evidence to support a reconsideration of the ministry’s prediction. The due date for the 2023 provisional roll review was November 18, 2022. Schools’ staffing and funding is reviewed based on March 1 actual rolls. If the March 1 roll is higher than the provisional roll for a school, staffing and funding will be increased accordingly. In the interim, schools can use the ministry’s online calculators to estimate what a roll increase might generate for them.
- Source: Ministry of Education
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