Presentation aims to help Bay's growth

Future-proofing: The Western Bay needs to think about how it fits into the new knowledge economy, says professor Paul Spoonley. Photo/Supplied

The challenges faced by Tauranga and the Western Bay of Plenty are largely good ones on how to accommodate growth, says Massey University demographics expert, distinguished professor Paul Spoonley.

"But there are some big questions - what does an age-friendly Tauranga look like, especially given it is a major destination for retirees. And how does Tauranga fit into a new knowledge economy?"

He will next month kick off the first in a new series of presentations organised by Smart Growth in partnership with Priority One and the Tauranga Chamber of Commerce, around the theme "Smart Talk, Future Thinking". The series aims to foster informed debate on delivering on the potential of the sub-region's businesses and communities.

His talk will focus on the need to consider the demographics of regions and how they might work to build to their economies. He will also discuss the trends in the Western Bay and what these mean for its future, including that of the business community.

Professor Spoonley said New Zealand was going through huge economic and demographic change with various elements that could be expected to impact Tauranga and the wider Bay of Plenty region. These included the ageing population - with the 65-plus age group expected to double over this decade - and an expected shortage of skilled labour.

Another key challenge was the disruption expected as a result of new technology.

"We anticipate that almost half of all jobs that exist in 2017 will not exist in 2027," he said.

In an interview ahead of next month's event, he noted that the Port of Tauranga was very successful and tourism was working well.

"But given that a lot of the old jobs are going to disappear, a challenge is how do you generate new business and make sure that business gets the skills it requires," he said.

Tauranga as an urban centre is quite unique, he added, citing its role in the emerging Golden Triangle growth story. Professor Spoonley said research indicated that 60 per cent of New Zealand's population growth over the next two decades would be in Auckland, with overspill benefits for both Hamilton and Tauranga from that growth.

"That confirms what we have been seeing for a while, which is the growth at the top half of the North Island," he said. "By contrast, two-thirds of the country will be experiencing population stagnation or decline."

The recent Statistics New Zealand report that Tauranga had overtaken Dunedin in population size reinforced that point, he added.
Bill Wasley, chair of Smart Growth, said the new series of talks were part of an initiative to promote wider discussion on particular issues that had the potential to affect the development of the Western Bay of Plenty.

"We want to provide information on topical issues, and promote engagement across the community beyond just the Smart Growth partnership and forums," he said.

Next month's event would include an update from Smart Growth on future planning, including a review of the settlement pattern, as well as other initiatives that Smart Growth was involved in.

"We want to be ahead of the eight ball in terms of planning for growth," he said.

"The funding of infrastructure across all of the partner councils will continue to be a big challenge and we're looking at different ways funding may be able to achieved. And that also means not just the provision of the physical infrastructure, but making sure that the full range of amenities and social infrastructure is also provided as part of the development of the Western Bay of Plenty."

Distinguished Professor Spoonley
-Massey University's pro vice chancellor (College of Humanities and Social Sciences)
-The editor of Rebooting the Regions - Why low or zero growth needn't mean the end of prosperity
-An expert in population trends, labour markets, the Auckland driver effect, and regional futures.

Smart Talk, Future Thinking
-When: 3-5pm, Tuesday, 7 February 2017
-Where: ASB Arena (Suites 2 & 3), Truman Lane, Mount Maunganui