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Opinion
Home / Bay of Plenty Times / Opinion

Populism and the election: Warning signs voters should watch for - Reynold Macpherson

Opinion by
Reynold Macpherson
Rotorua Daily Post·
1 Apr, 2026 03:00 PM5 mins to read

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Populism often personalises power, placing emphasis on strong leaders rather than on accountable institutions, writes Reynold Macpherson. Photo / 123RF (posed by model)

Populism often personalises power, placing emphasis on strong leaders rather than on accountable institutions, writes Reynold Macpherson. Photo / 123RF (posed by model)

There are just over 30 weeks until the next general election.

Voters will soon be making important choices, and those choices will shape the country’s future.

One task deserves particular care. Voters need to recognise populism and avoid being misled by it.

Populist politicians are often skilled performers. They speak in direct and confident terms, and they claim to tell hard truths that others avoid.

They present themselves as champions of ordinary people, standing against distant or unresponsive elites. This can sound appealing. It can also be deceptive.

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Populism is not a single ideology. It is better understood as a style of politics. It divides society into two groups: “the people” and “the elite”, or “us” and “them”.

Populist leaders claim that only they represent the true will of the people, while others are dismissed as self-serving or out of touch.

This style takes several familiar forms.

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One targets elites by attacking politicians, officials, experts, and the media as disconnected from everyday life.

Another style targets outsiders, blaming migrants, minorities, or dissenters for social and economic pressures.

A third simplifies complex issues, reducing them to slogans or referenda that avoid careful reasoning.

A fourth relies on performance, using outrage and spectacle to attract attention rather than to clarify issues.

In New Zealand, elements of this approach are becoming more visible.

Debates about the Treaty, co-governance, and the Māori seats are sometimes framed in stark and simplified ways.

Complex constitutional questions are reduced to slogans, and careful reasoning can give way to sharp division.

These approaches can be effective because they respond to real concerns.

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Many people feel unheard or uncertain about rapid change. Populism offers recognition and a sense of belonging, along with the reassurance of clear and simple answers.

Yet this is also where a deeper problem emerges. Populist rhetoric can signal insincerity.

When leaders rely on sweeping claims, selective evidence, or emotionally charged language, they may be seeking support rather than offering understanding.

When positions shift quickly to match public mood, or when difficult trade-offs are avoided altogether, voters should pause.

Sincerity in politics is shown through consistency, transparency, and a willingness to engage with complexity. Populism often substitutes performance for that discipline.

These patterns come with significant costs.

Populism tends to weaken truthfulness in public debate. Complex problems rarely have simple solutions, and most require trade-offs that need to be explained openly.

When leaders deny this complexity, they offer reassurance instead of reality.

It can also weaken trust. Democratic systems rely on institutions such as courts, public services, and electoral processes to provide stability and protect rights.

While these institutions should always be open to scrutiny and improvement, dismissing them wholesale as corrupt or illegitimate erodes public confidence.

Populism can narrow representation as well. Although it claims to speak for “the people”, it often defines that group in limited ways.

Those who disagree are pushed aside, and minority voices can be marginalised. A diverse society is reduced to a single, simplified narrative.

Public debate is also affected. Populist rhetoric often relies on personal attacks rather than reasoned argument.

Labels replace evidence, and discussion can slip into language that demeans people because of their identity, whether based on age, ethnicity, or gender.

Such language may attract attention, but it does not improve understanding. It lowers the quality of democratic conversation.

There are further consequences. Populism often personalises power, placing emphasis on strong leaders rather than on accountable institutions.

Criticism can then be treated as disloyalty. At the same time, the focus on immediate emotional appeal encourages short-term thinking, even though many national challenges require patience, co-operation, and evidence-based planning.

None of this means that voters should accept the status quo without question.

Democracies depend on criticism, reform, and open debate. There is, however, an important distinction between constructive challenge and corrosive simplification.

The former strengthens institutions; the latter weakens them.

Voters can make this distinction by asking careful questions.

- Does a leader claim exclusive authority to speak for “the people”?

- Are critics dismissed as enemies or conspirators?

- Are complex issues reduced to simple answers?

- Is emotion being used in place of explanation?

It is equally important to look for positive signs.

- Do leaders explain trade-offs honestly?

- Do they show consistency over time?

- Do they respect institutions while seeking to improve them?

- Do they include diverse voices, even when those voices are inconvenient?

Elections are not only about policies. They are also about judgment and about the kind of politics we choose to reward.

Populism will always have some appeal. It can surface neglected concerns and challenge complacency.

Yet when it substitutes performance for sincerity and division for representation, it weakens democratic life.

In the weeks ahead, voters face a demanding task.

They must look beyond slogans, resist political theatre, and choose leaders who treat them not as an audience to be stirred, but as citizens capable of judgment.

That choice will shape not only the outcome of the election, but the quality of democracy itself.

Reynold J.S. Macpherson is a retired professor and long-time commentator on ethics, democracy and educative leadership. He lives in Rotorua and continues to write on governance and public responsibility. He can be contacted at reynold@reynoldmacpherson.ac.nz

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