Luke Kirkness: Sam Uffindell cleared but true test starts next year

National MP for Tauranga Sam Uffindell during his swearing-in ceremony in Parliament on August 2. Photo / Mark Mitchell

OPINION:

Ever since the allegations of Sam Uffindell's past indiscretions came to light the biggest question has been whether it will cost him his job at the election.

On Monday, the Tauranga MP was reinstated to the National Party caucus after an independent probe found allegations of bullying behaviour as a young adult at university could not be substantiated.

Uffindell had denied the claims, made to RNZ by a former flatmate and her father, and was stood down from caucus while Maria Dew KC investigated.

According to National Party leader Christopher Luxon, Dew's findings did not back up the allegations "as reported in the media".

The report will not be made public and the National Party is fully within its rights to withhold it, but it has left people wondering what actually took place.

Uffindell's former flatmate and her father, who made the allegations, have said they are happy for Dew's report to be made public but Luxon has defended his party's approach, saying he "absolutely" believed it had struck the right balance between confidentiality and transparency.

However, I believe the decision to not release the report will not help Uffindell in the long term.

It leaves the whole scandal open-ended. Dew found there were differing accounts about what happened but we do not know the substance of those, particularly Uffindell's. How different were they?

Uffindell has since admitted to being a bully in high school. Of the Dunedin flat situation, he has said he was "genuinely shocked" by the former flatmate's allegation and there was a "genuine breakdown" in the flatting relationship.

I can imagine he may want to put it all behind him now, and certainly, some voters in true-blue Tauranga would agree that should happen.

But I believe the lack of closure will leave other voters with a question mark over Uffindell that they will remember at the next election.

By not making it public, the party is leaving more questions than answers.

Uffindell has said he will "work really hard" and wants to secure the loyalty of the people of Tauranga.

He is going to have to - and that extends to his own party, too.

I believe his biggest battle in the 2022 byelection was to be selected as National's candidate, and there is no guarantee he will win it again in 2023.

Labour has not won the Tauranga seat since the 1930s and even Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern correctly predicted Labour would not win June's byelection.

Its candidate, Internal Affairs Minister and well-known former local principal Jan Tinetti finished 6364 votes behind political newcomer Uffindell.

Ultimately, the verdict on the viability of Uffindell's political career will come at next year's election.

His party will have the first say and, if it keeps backing him, Tauranga voters will make the final call.