Glut could be over as 30% drop in Green yields forecast

After the two most productive years ever, kiwifruit Green yields are forecast to plunge from 25-30 per cent in the coming season, Zespri, growers and post-harvest operators have confirmed.

The volatility in the Green kiwifruit segment of the key export industry could pose problems for Zespri's plans to expand into new markets.

Aside from the hit to Green growers, it also may have a negative affect on post-harvest operator throughput next year.

The latest estimates from Zespri to growers are that Green production could drop up to 30 per cent from almost 91 million trays in 2016 (excluding organic), with estimated yields of around 9500 trays per hectare next year.

Meanwhile, last year's second successive year of phenomenally high yields saw at least 5 million trays dumped, mostly as animal fodder, under Zespri's crop management programme to stabilise pricing. Industry sources said several million trays from the current season are understood to be still unsold, but Zespri says all fruit will be cleared by year end.

New Zealand Kiwifruit Growers chairman Doug Brown said growers were expecting that this year's warm winter, which affected bud break, would affect harvest numbers.

"However, it must also be taken into account that whatever the numbers will be, they will be relative to the record harvest from last year."

Average yields on Green orchards went from 8900 trays in 2014 to more than 11,000 trays in 2015, with some orchardists getting up to 12,500 trays per ha. Kiwifruit industry sources cite a number of causes for the expected drop in Green yields, but also say it may help lift low Green orchard gate returns. (See accompanying story)

Zespri chief operating officer Simon Limmer said a Green yield reduction of up to 30 per cent across orchards was consistent with what the export entity had been hearing.

"It's really early days," he said. "But in the context of the past couple of years, where we've seen Green yields at phenomenal levels, what we're hearing is that we are potentially back to more normal levels; whatever normal is."

Production of the new Gold kiwifruit, introduced in the wake of Psa, which ravaged the industry in 2010, is understood to be on track.

Volumes have been expanding as orchards converted from Green to the Psa-resistant Gold come into production. Zespri is forecasting volumes of up to 63 million trays in 2017, up from 48 million trays this year.

Stuart Weston, managing director of post-harvest operator Apata, wasn't surprised at the fall in Green yields, but said that volatility was not a good thing for the industry. The recent glut had been unheralded, he added.

"If we had the estimates right to begin with, we would have done a far better job with the selling. The fact that we still weren't sure what our Green crop estimate was halfway through May this year really threw Zespri into a state of chaos."

Mr Weston said some easing back, to around 80 million trays of Green, would have been useful, but the current projections for next year's harvest had created real problems for Zespri.

"This puts them in a real quandary. You've got to keep those developing markets fed with a little bit of fruit just to keep them on the boil so if and when volumes grow again, and I expect that to happen the following year, they can continue on with the development of those markets. This is actually a bit of blow."

Mr Weston said that given the plan was to have about 90 million trays of Green in the next few years, then it was important to remain in some of the developing markets. "And that's an expense. We're going to spend a lot of money in promoting relative to the volume."

Zespri would continue to invest in strategic markets, Mr Limmer said.

"The balancing act we have to achieve is to continue investing in the future, knowing that we are going to have growth and expansion. We'll be sure to be filling very strong performing markets as well as we can while maintaining our strategy for the longer term."

Mr Limmer confirmed that the exceptional production last season had forced Zespri to crop manage 5 million trays out of the market this year.

Zespri has forecast sales of 83.1 million trays, compared to supply of 90.7 million trays, for the 2016 year. The difference was accounted for by the 5 million in crop management, plus normal fruit losses, with some fruit in the pipeline at various points, said Zespri.

"Our projections still hold," said Mr Limmer, adding that the China market had started late this year and Zespri expected all fruit to be sold by year end.

Annmarie Lee, general manager growers & marketing for New Zealand's biggest kiwifruit grower Seeka, confirmed the company was expecting around 9000-9500 trays of Green per ha.

"Crops are variable, some growers have got very good crops, some haven't," she said. "We should remember that level is back to around what we were always considering a normal year. For two seasons we have had very large volumes."

Steve Butler, general manager of Trevelyan's Pack & Cool, said the reduced yields were not a surprise.

"But the extent of the downturn is quite a hit," he said. "We hope it won't be too distressing for growers."

EastPack chief executive Hamish Simson said the harvest estimate was still a moving feast.

"We know it's down," he said. "But the final reduction is still playing out."

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The coming season's low Green yields have been attributed to a number of factors, including the warm winter suppressing floral activity, and the very wet period during bud burst.

However, sources said there was a growing feeling amongst growers that the past two years of exceptionally high yields may have temporarily exhausted some Green vines.

Apata managing director Stuart Weston said the "incredible loading" put on Green vines was believed to be a major factor in projected lower yields for 2017.

He noted that last season many growers had girdled their vines, a process whereby a band is placed around the vine to concentrate carbohydrates so as to improve dry matter and taste.

"When you're girdling a plant, you're capturing all the carbohydrates that are being generated up top, rather than leaving it in the roots," he said.

"You're pumping the energy up the top to get the dry matter up, but at expense of feeding the plant down below."

Mr Weston said the techniques were a response by orchardists to early season tests that dry matter was low, which reduces the price achieved for fruit.

One positive outcome from the expected drop in Green yields, is that orchard gate returns (OGR), around $4.20 per tray, may increase. Zespri has advised growers that the coming season may see Green yields go up to $5.70, and some industry sources said $6 was a possibility.

That will be a welcome increase for Green growers. Absorbing the surge in yields in the past 24 months resulted in Green returns dropping from $6.01 in 2015 to $5.13 per tray in 2016.

However, it remains unclear whether the increased prices will offset the reduction in volumes.

"The Green OGR remained relatively static when volumes grew," said Mr Weston.

"The tray price was dropping as fast as the volumes were going up, which tells you there's a sweet spot for Green until [Zespri] develop other lucrative markets."