Flu fears for full intensive care units

Elective surgery at Tauranga Hospital was postponed every day over the past week due to demand in the intensive care unit.
The unit was yesterday running at capacity, with all five beds occupied. But the hospital said it had yet to have a case of a patient in intensive care with swine flu.
This contrasts with district health boards across the country where intensive care units have been pushed to capacity by swine flu.
Auckland, according to latest reports, had seven swine flu cases in ICU (22 per cent of capacity); Northland two (50 per cent); Counties-Manukau five (35 per cent); and Waitemata three (43 per cent).
Among units hardest hit is Christchurch Hospital, where 10 patients out of 20 in intensive care were suspected of having swine flu.
The number of elective surgeries postponed this week was not revealed by the Bay of Plenty District Health Board.
Julie Robinson, Acting Chief Operating Officer, said Tauranga Hospital aimed to increase the number of elective surgeries next week, though the situation was being reviewed daily.
"Patient safety is our number one priority and anyone who needs urgent hospital care or surgery will get it," she said.
She said people continued to arrive at the hospital saying they had flu-like symptoms.
But she said it was not possible to confirm if they had swine flu as not every patient was being swabbed.
The infection rate for swine flu in New Zealand is higher than previously believed and up to 79 per cent of the population could become infected, University of Otago researchers have predicted.
They say the first estimate for New Zealand suggests each person who caught influenza A (H1N1) could on average infect nearly two others.
Earlier estimates based on figures from the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico suggested each person would infect 1.5 others, Associate Professor Michael Baker said.
"Our best estimate of the reproduction number for the Influenza A virus in New Zealand is 1.96, which is somewhat higher than the number we have previously used in modelling estimates," Prof Baker said.
The confirmed death toll in New Zealand from people infected with swine flu is 11, although the Chief Coroner's Office is investigating up to three other deaths believed to be linked to the virus.
All who have died had underlying health conditions. Seventy-two people are currently in hospital after contracting the virus, with 23 of those in intensive care.
Yesterday's figure of laboratory-confirmed swine flu cases New Zealand was 2585, a rise of 60 on the previous day.
The Ministry of Health's Principal Medical Advisor, Dr David Galler, said health services continued to provide quality care despite the increasing pressure on GPs and hospitals from the rising number of swine flu cases.