• VOTES COUNTED: - 36,973 - 100%
• LEADING CANDIDATE: Todd Muller - 16,929
• 2nd CANDIDATE: Angie Warren-Clarke -13,457
• CURRENT MARGIN: 3,472
• PARTY VOTE LEAD: Labour Party 41.3%
• 2nd PARTY:National Party 33.9%
The Bay of Plenty MP seat is a safe National Party seat no longer, says Labour list MP Angie Warren-Clark.
National MP Todd Muller was victorious in retaining his MP role for the Bay of Plenty electorate on Saturday night, but Warren-Clark was not far behind. While Muller will enter his third term as MP, Warren-Clark enters her second as a list MP.
By 11.30pm on Saturday with 86.7 per cent of votes counted, Muller had received 14,706 votes and Warren-Clark 11,335.
However, the Labour Party received 41.3 per cent of votes in the Bay of Plenty while National received 33.9 per cent.
"I'm absolutely delighted," Warren-Clark said.
She said she was happy to see so many of her colleagues succeed in their respective electorates, particularly those that had been considered safe blue seats.
"I don't think you can call these safe National seats anymore," Warren-Clark said.
"I was comparing this with last time and it just feels so different, so positive and I'm just hopeful. I'm so pleased that people have seen that our kind of leadership is what we all need."
In the last election, Muller received 61 per cent of votes, followed by Warren-Clark who received 27 per cent. Both became the electorate frontrunners and MPs, with three other contenders reaching less than 10 per cent of votes.
Warren-Clark's mother Linda Hahn said she was "proud as punch" of her daughter and if she won she would probably cry.
Warren-Clark posed for photos with the family at a photo booth set up in front of a red sequined backdrop. In one photo she and husband Blair Warren shared a high-five.
As votes rolled in, Warren-Clark called Muller to congratulate him on the win.
Muller took over from former National MP Tony Ryall in 2014. Muller is ranked eighth in the National Party, after a tumultuous year in which he rolled Tauranga MP Simon Bridges as leader but then stepped down 53 days later for mental health reasons.
Last night, there was a strong turnout of men and women clad in blue at Muller's party at Omanu Golf Club.
Blue balloons and Muller signs decorated the walls, including the artistically vandalised hoarding that depicts Muller as the Joker from Batman movies.
About 100 people chatted amongst themselves while watching results unfold on the television.
Muller's wife Michelle referred to a corner of the room at the "stats corner" where faithful Muller supporters kept an extremely close eye on the live results.
Muller said he was grateful for the support and votes which he said had been "incredibly humbling". However, he admitted to feeling conflicted while watching the votes roll in.
In a speech to supporters, Muller apologised for the party not being high octane and high energy celebration, "it's a bit more sombre than that, we were hoping for a bit better but we can hold on to the fact we are part of something special".
Muller was referring to the Labour's party-vote lead in the Bay of Plenty and other electorates. Something that was also touched on by Tauranga MP Simon Bridges on television earlier in the night.
"It would be very easy to look for recriminations and look for ways to move forward that are destructive rather than constructive," Muller said.
"The great challenge is that we don't succumb to that and at our core, we remain humble to the representation of the people who sent us there [to Parliament]. That is what we must bring to the next three years. It can't be divisive. It can't be recriminations. It is what it is."
On Monday, Muller and wife Michelle will return to Wellington to celebrate their 18th anniversary. It will be the first time he will enter Parliament since he stepped down.
He paid particular tribute to his supporters and in particular his mother and wife who "were there for me when I needed them".
Muller said there was a level on anxiety at the scope of Labour's takeover in some electorates that had previously been considered strong National seats and what that meant for Tauranga and the Bay of Plenty.
He said the last time Labour lead locally was about 20 years ago.
Muller said he felt "gutted" for his colleagues who have lost their electorates.
"They are friends as well as colleagues and we know how hard they work. It's devastating. It's hard. It's very, very tough."
Back at Warren-Clark's party at Mount Maunganui Golf Club, Warren-Clark said it was great to be surrounded by her "Labour family".
She had been joined by her real family also, who travelled down from Northland to be with her last night.
Earlier
Muller has spent his day with family, joining his wife and mother in voting at his old stomping ground of Te Puna. It was the first time he had voted without his father, who died within two weeks of the last election in 2017.
Warren-Clark said she hoped for a Labour win and cautiously optimistic. She was appreciative of her supporters saying the party had a good turnout.
"Its great to be surrounded by my Labour family."
7.40pm
"That is incredible, that is phenomenal."
Those are the words from some supporters keeping watch of election votes, and Labour's lead, at the gathering for Labout list MP Angie Warren-Clark tonight.
Angie Warren-Clark pointed to the television screen in excitement, announcing the lead to the room of supporters.
Earlier Warren-Clarke also pointed out the results for the Rangitata seat which she said was the safest National seat in the country but had Labour leading there also.
7.18pm
Red and white balloons, streamers and a ceiling of fairy lights adorn the Mount Maunganui Golf Club where Labour list MP Angie Warren-Clark has gathered with friends, family and supporters.
Warren-Clark has just thanked everyone for coming and their support during this year's campaign, calling them her Labour family.
The room is full of chatter and hugs as more people arrive, others help themselves to savouries and more watch the results unfolding on television.
Earlier
It has been a year like no other for Bay of Plenty MP Todd Muller, who will find out tonight
if he keeps his seat, loses it to Labour list MP Angie Warren-Clark or is usurped by one of eight newcomers vying for the position.
In the last election, Muller received 61 per cent of votes, followed by Warren-Clark who received 27 per cent. Both became the electorate frontrunners and MPs, with three other contenders reaching less than 10 per cent of votes.
If Muller is successful this election, it will be his third term as MP after taking over from former National MP Tony Ryall in 2014. Muller is ranked eighth in the National Party, after a tumultuous year in which he rolled Tauranga MP Simon Bridges as leader but then stepped down 53 days later for mental health reasons.
Bay of Plenty MP Todd Muller was feeling quietly confident ahead of tonight's election results but is remaining cautious.
"The feedback I've received locally has been very strong but we will see what tonight brings," he told the Bay of Plenty Times moments before joining supporters as a party this evening.
Muller has spent his day with family, joining his wife and mother in voting at his old stomping ground of Te Puna. It was the first time he had voted without his father, who died within two weeks of the last election in 2017.
"Yes, it's certainly the first time without him, just with mum. It was poignant but lovely."
Muller has also spent some of the day with friends who have travelled from out of town to be with him.
Warren-Clark was feeling nervous, excited and "really looking forward to a really good result for Labour tonight.
She will be celebrating election results tonight at Mount Maunganui Golf Club, where she will be joined by loyal supporters. She said she and her team have had a busy day reminding people to vote.
Warren-Clark has been joined by family and friends who have travelled from Northland to join her tonight. They have already shared a glass of champagne before heading to tonight's event.
"It's nice."
Warren-Clark said she hoped people would recognise Labour's hard work this year and that that would be reflected in the voting results, which are expected to begin funnelling in from 7pm.
"I hope we've done enough to get us a good result."
Although not successful in receiving the most votes in 2017, Warren-Clark's 35th placing in the Labour party ensured her victory as a list MP. If successful this time, this will be Warren-Clark's second term as list MP or first as elected MP.
Warren-Clark moved into politics in the 2017 election after a career as a domestic violence advisor and then as manager of Tauranga Women's Refuge.
But this year's election is not necessarily a two-horse race.
Eight other candidates are in contention for the Bay of Plenty seat, including second-time candidate Bruce Carley who is standing for the Act Party.
Carley received just .47 per cent of the votes
in 2017 and is ranked 14th on his party's list. But Act has seen increased support in favourable polls leading up to this year's election day.
Carley moved to the Bay of Plenty in 2014 and works as a marketing and communications manager. But as Muller is passionate about economy and Warren-Clark social justice, Carley wants to see more personal freedom and responsibility.
Carley, Warren-Clark and Muller are joined by seven others in the bid for the MP seat, bringing the total number of candidates to double that of the 2017 election.
New faces for the Bay of Plenty this election are Margaret Colmore representing the New Conservative, The Opportunities Party's Chris Jenkins, Angela Moncur for The Advance Party, Sharon Devery for One Party, Pete Huggins for the Green Party, Tricia Lawrence for NZ First, and Christopher Coker for Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
If any of the newcomers are successful, it will be their first entry into Parliament.
Colmore said she joined New Conservative because of its focus on strengthening families, free speech, lower personal taxation, the value of human life, a reduction in state regulations, the emphasis on New Zealand's sovereignty, efficiency in government spending and greater attention to genuine democracy.
Jenkins said he and The Opportunities Party stood for opportunities for children, and a society that prospered together. One Party's Devery advocated for land, environment and nation and believed everyone had the right to be heard and have an opinion.
Green Party Bay of Plenty candidate Huggins, who lives in Wellington, was seeking a party vote because he believed he represented environmental protection and upholding human rights.
Moncur said she and the Advance Party stood for change and was concerned the present government was taking New Zealand from a democratic sovereign country with rights and freedoms into a fear-based corrupt totalitarian state.
Lawrence said she, as a NZ First candidate, would champion investment into the region from funds like the Provincial Growth Fund, which would create new industries, businesses and jobs, as well as look for new tourism opportunities.
Coker has not responded to queries.
The Bay of Plenty electorate is a "U"-shaped electorate whose "arms" surround but do not include Tauranga city. The eastern arm extends along the coastal strip past Pāpāmoa Beach but boundary changes in 2014 moved the area around Te Puke into the Rotorua electorate. The Kaimai Ranges mostly determine the electorate's western boundary as far north as Matakana Island.
She repurposes op-shop gowns to highlight her creative skills and sustainable fashion.