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Home / Bay of Plenty Times

Editorial: Making the population boom reality

By Anita Moran
Bay of Plenty Times·
27 Jun, 2014 07:00 PM4 mins to read

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Aerial view over residential area of Tauranga.

Aerial view over residential area of Tauranga.

If you build it, they will come, well that's how the saying goes.

It seems like we are constantly predicting what Tauranga will be like in the future, but the process to accommodate that growth seems to take far longer.

In May, it was estimated that 30,000 new homes would be needed to be built in Tauranga by 2041 which would help deal with the population explosion.

In a report delivered to the city council in May, the population of about 120,000 people was expected to jump 45 per cent to an estimated 175,000.

The information was included in the Tauranga Transport Strategy, presented to and adopted by the city council.

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However, figures released to the city council this week indicated that 48,000 new houses needed to be built in the next 50 years, with a further 10,700 in the Western Bay district.

The figures were based on the 2013 Census data and were presented by SmartGrowth, the organisation charged with controlling urban sprawl.

The report identified a possible shortfall of 2465ha once all the existing greenfield urban growth areas were developed, along with infill and intensification of existing urban areas.

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The fact that Tauranga is a growing city excites me. I want to live in a vibrant city, with plenty of things to see and do and with a variety of places to go. Somewhere with a sense of community and somewhere people like to come to visit for more reasons than a nice beach.

However, more data predicted by SmartGrowth shows one-third of the city's population will be over the age of 65 in less than 20 years.

Of the 117,280 people living in the city, 22,880 are 65 or over, but the report estimated the number of people in that age group would more than double to 54,725 by the year 2033.

The city's overall population would grow by 37 per cent to a projected 161,646 in that time, and 71 per cent of that growth would be people over the age of 65.

In contrast, those aged 15-39 years would make up just 4.4 per cent of the population growth, while 23 per cent would be people between 40 and 64 years, according to the data.

The ageing population trend is similar in the remainder of the Western Bay, with demographers predicting one-third of the population will be aged 65 or older by 2033 - up from 19.5 per cent in 2013. By 2063, that proportion is projected to reach 41 per cent.

Between 2034 and 2063, all age groups are predicted to increase but a whopping 84 per cent of the growth will be made up of people over the age of 65 years.

So with all these predictions about new houses, will they need to be built elderly friendly?

Are we catering for and encouraging an ageing population or are we trying to entice young families and professionals to move here? In addition to the houses, are we creating new infrastructure? Where will all these people work? Go to school? Is Tauranga ready for this sort of population boom or will it even arrive?

I can't help but think of the city of Naypidaw in Burma, which was only built 10 years ago. The city has been designed for a huge population, the only thing missing is the people.

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Naypidaw is a multi-billion-dollar empty city smack in the middle of the jungle.

The built-from-scratch city has sprawling government buildings, eight-lane highways, golf courses, Vegas-inspired hotels, elaborate gardens, malls, movie theatres, museums and a national zoo, which includes a "safari cage" and an air-conditioned penguin house.

The decade-old city appears to have just about everything, except for one crucial component, people.

Is that what is destined for Tauranga?

Do we have the sense to build a liveable and workable city?

Population estimates are useful but we also need to have the foresight to make changes that will entice people to move here in order to make those projections a reality.

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