Donald Trump trade plans concern Bay business

Protectionsm: Tighter US regulations could see a reshaping of supply channels says ExportNZ Bay of Plenty Chairman Dan Hansen. Photo/File

US President Donald Trump's executive decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) has confirmed many Bay of Plenty business people's worst fears that the new President is making good on his protectionist campaign rhetoric.

Business sources said their concerns about the new Administration also included the likelihood that many of the President's policies would likely create inflationary pressures and upward pressure on interest rates, which would have a knock-on effect worldwide. And while the New Zealand dollar may fall slightly against the US currency, it was unlikely to provide any significant benefits to exporters.

ExportNZ Bay of Plenty chairman Dan Hansen said a reduction in trade liberalisation seemed likely.

"We're probably going to see a reshaping of supply chains, and a tightening around regulations and compliance," he said. "There might be different routing and sourcing of products to meet [new] US regulations."

But he noted that American manufacturing was not always the most competitive in the world, and that tightening immigration laws could increase its domestic labour costs.

"Some of those policies will directly impact their ability to become more competitive, and could push local costs up." he said.

Stan Gregec, chief executive, Tauranga Chamber of Commerce, said Trump's announcement on TPP meant New Zealand, along with lots of other players, would be starting to think about alternative scenarios.

"I'm not feeling very optimistic we're going to be seeing the dawn of a new golden age in international trade," he said. "The indications are it's going the other way."

Priority One chief executive Nigel Tutt said the new President brought unpredictability.

"Unpredictability normally is not a good thing for business in terms of its confidence and ability to invest," he said. "The big risk would be that America's uncertainty and [Trump's] policies have a negative effect on Asia and our other trading partners."

Bay of Plenty MP Todd Muller said he had been surprised Mr Trump had maintained the campaign rhetoric at his inauguration.

"It was the most pugilistic and partisan speech I think we've seen in recent memory from a President and set a tone for me that was confrontational with the world. Any exporting city - like Tauranga - totally gets that only way you are successful is to build a relationship with your customers based on trust."

Red Stag Timber chief executive Marty Verry said he would expect there to be timber industry concerns over how far the Trump Administration took protectionism.

"And also because it's looking likely the US will reimpose tariffs on Canadian supply. If that grows into a more general import tariff, that could affect our industry. "

But while the TPP decision was disappointing, there were a lot of other countries to do deals with.

"I'm not losing sleep over the prospect of a TPP without the US."

Zespri chief operating officer Simon Limmer said the withdrawal from TPP was disappointing as there were some interesting benefits to the kiwifruit industry, particularly in the Japanese market.

"Everyone's watching this space."

Comvita chief executive Scott Coulter said that when big economies started thinking protectionism, that generally would be expected to have a negative impact on New Zealand.

"But it does mean there's an opportunity for the Asia Pacific region to consolidate a bit further," he said. "In the end, it's what it is and you have to make the best of it."

KPMG Tauranga managing partner Glenn Keaney said clients were going to be watching developments very closely.

"They'll be talking to their partners and customers in the US and making sure they are keeping up those relationships and mitigating any possible fallout."

Trans -Pacific Partnership (TPP):

- The TPP was signed in February 2016 between New Zealand, Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, the US and Vietnam. It has not yet entered into force and the US has now withdrawn.

The key outcomes of the Trump presidency from a financial markets perspective are likely to be higher global inflation and interest rates, and a stronger US dollar, says Craigs Investment Partners head of private wealth research Mark Lister.

"Those three things alone have quite big implications for everyone. If you get higher inflation, you're going to get higher interest rates everywhere. And if interest rates go up in the US, then rates will rise in other markets to attract money."

Mr Lister said that although he didn't expect major changes this year in the official cash rate, currently at 1.75, there were important signals in the longer term money market swap rates.

The New Zealand five year rate had risen from 2 per cent in mid-2016, to around 3 per cent, he noted.

"That reflects an expectation of a rise in inflation. Rates have been low because there has been no inflation anywhere, but that won't continue for ever."

The President's talk of cutting taxes and spending money on infrastructure had some positive aspects and had helped rally markets, he said. But the long-term implications of Trump's policies were inflationary and mortgage rates in New Zealand could be expected to rise.

And while the New Zealand dollar was likely to weaken against a stronger US dollar, that only helped exporters to the US, while the cost of key imports such as petrol could go up.