"But that does not mean there isn't a chance of bouts of cooler weather, which is likely to be the case over the next two weeks, because of the swings in temperatures," he said.
Brandolino said Niwa was closely monitoring areas of the upper North Island, including the Bay of Plenty, as there was potential for these areas to be drier than last summer.
MetService forecaster Brian Mercer said there was a little bit of "scrappy cloud" expected to hang around the Bay of Plenty ranges over the next couple of days.
However, that was likely clear to a fine day on Wednesday, but there was still a chance of some showers on the eastern ranges, Mercer said.
"Over the next two days the maximum daily temperature is likely to be average about 20C although it would still be a little bit cloudy at times," he said.
Maximum daily average temperatures across the Bay in October:
18.1C in Tauranga
18.2C in Te Puke
16.4C in Rotorua
18.3C in Whakatāne
15.8C in Taupō
Source: Niwa