The Western Bay could have five Members of Parliament based locally if opinion polling holds in a week's time.

Regardless of electorate results and who forms a Government, polling indicates current National electorate MPs Simon Bridges (sixth on the list), Todd Muller (43rd) and Tauranga-based NZ First list MP Clayton Mitchell (sixth) are set to return to Parliament at least on their party's list.

Labour candidates for Tauranga, Jan Tinetti (15th), and Bay of Plenty, Angie Warren-Clark (39th), are also likely to enter as first-time MPs based on recent polling, even without an electorate seat.

The Rotorua electorate, which includes Te Puke, is also likely to have four locally-based MPs according to current polling. These include the current Rotorua MP, National's Todd McClay and New Zealand First candidate Fletcher Tabuteau, who was on the party list at No 4, incumbent Waiariki MP Te Ururoa Flavell, and Waiariki candidate Tamati Coffey from Labour, who is also likely to get into Parliament with a list placing at 35.


Averages of polls current as of last week showed National was set to receive 51 seats, Labour 51 seats, New Zealand First eight seats, Green seven seats, Maori Party two seats - assuming the party wins an electorate - and Act one seat.

Many of the region's possible MPs said the increased visibility of Bay-based MPs in Parliament would have a positive impact on the region, although some said it would not matter how many were in if they were heading in the wrong direction.

Priority One chief executive Nigel Tutt said unequivocally more MPs would be good.

"Our view would be that increased representation can only be a positive thing for the Bay of Plenty. As quite a rapidly growing region, it's really important we have visibility with the Government and those in Wellington. [More] MPs would certainly help that a lot," he said.

"They're all great, so we hope that any additional representation from this area would be a good thing for the area overall - I'm sure it would be with the calibre of candidates."

MP for Tauranga, National's Simon Bridges, said the Tauranga, the Bay and Waiariki already had four elected Government MPs across the region.

"Over the last nine years, we've worked together to launch an economic action plan to grow the region's economy and invested significantly in transport and communications infrastructure."

Clayton Mitchell, NZ First list MP based in Tauranga, said the Bay needed the right MPs, not any particular amount.

"It doesn't matter how many MPs we've got in Tauranga - it only matters if . . . they're going to do something," he said.

"We've got two big issues in town: transportation . . . and housing. They both need to be fixed, and it's a central government issue. We need to be supporting Tauranga and fast growing cities like it."

Labour candidate for Tauranga Jan Tinetti said greater representation would mean greater advocacy for the Bay.

"More representation will guarantee greater levels of advocacy for the region," she said.

"I am committed to advocating for equity and fairness in the region around housing, health and education and lifting people out of poverty. I want to see the local economy continue to grow, ensuring our infrastructure is keeping up with the growing demands."

Labour's Bay of Plenty candidate Angie Warren-Clark said it was likely the Bay would have three Labour MPs, including Waiariki candidate Tamati Coffey.

"Labour and the local Labour team will be fighting for investment in regional infrastructure like roading and rail," she said.

"We are passionate about addressing homelessness and making sure everyone has a home. Mental health and drug and alcohol rehabilitation funding is a key priority for me."

Todd Muller was attending a family bereavement.

Waiariki was shaping up to be a closely fought electorate. Either one could win the electorate seat, and the other could make it on their party's respective list.

Coffey looked more assured of a list placing at 35th for Labour. On current polling, the Maori Party would need to pick up a fraction of a per cent of the party vote for second-placed Flavell to return to Parliament on the list, assuming it won an electorate.