Zespri is cautiously predicting a harvest of about 90 million trays of kiwifruit this season - down from 105 million last year.
Simon Limmer, Zespri's general manager (grower and government relations) said detailed crop estimates would not be finished until February but even then just how many gold kiwifruit orchards in Te Puke carried a crop through to harvest would be be uncertain.
"Some orchards with fruit may still lose their crops and everyone is waiting with bated breath to see if they make it to harvest," he said.
While the bacterial disease Psa-V was one reason for the drop in volume, it wasn't the only factor.
"Last season was a record crop and even without Psa-V there would have been a normal seasonal drop in volume. We are expecting a crop more in line with the 2009/10 season than the last one," he said.
Reduced crop volumes could mean increased per tray returns because of less pressure in the market but tough economic conditions in Europe in particular and the strength of the New Zealand dollar could undermine that.
Mr Limmer said there could be savings for the industry in handling less fruit over what was expected to be a shorter season.
Zespri had taken steps to cut its overheads but details of how that would be achieved wouldn't be made public yet. "We will be sharing that information with growers and the industry first."
The wet, windy weather in December and early January had assisted in the spread of Psa-V (Pseudomonas syringae pv actinidiae) but the spell of fine warm weather now being experienced should slow it.
About half of New Zealand's export gold kiwifruit were traditionally grown in Te Puke but by last week 777 orchards in that area, most of them gold, had the disease.
"Other regions outside of the Bay of Plenty are on track for a standard production and are looking good."
Mr Limmer said Hayward green orchards were standing up better to the disease than the more susceptible gold Hort16A. "Even in Te Puke, (infected) green orchards are holding up and expected to grow fruit to harvest, as we have seen green do in Italy. Green is certainly more robust than Hort16A."
Psa-V was a disease of the kiwifruit vine and not the fruit, Mr Limmer said. "Last year no country banned imports of New Zealand kiwifruit because of Psa and we expect that to still be the case."
Zespri would not drop its high quality standards in light of the disease. "There is no thought of relaxing standards for the attributes we have built around the brand and we will ensure quality is maintained.
"The markets are looking forward to Zespri's arrival with quality kiwifruit out of New Zealand."
New gold varieties would be part of the export mix this season but Mr Limmer said it was too early to say what volumes would be harvested and where they would be sent. However, the new varieties were showing more tolerance to Psa-V than Hort16A.
Zespri will again be chartering its own reefer ships to take fruit to market, said Zespri shipping manager Mike Knowles and the first vessel was likely to leave from Gisborne as in the past, sharing the hold space with export squash.