Retail spending higher than expected

Total and core retail sales each rose 1.6 per cent in the month of September - surprising some economists.
Economists said the higher sales largely reflected households bringing forward purchases of big-ticket items ahead of the rise in the goods and services tax in October and discounting.
Sales of furniture and floor coverings increased by a whopping 30.1 per cent relative to August, while sales of appliances increased by 14.4 per cent, ASB economist Christina Leung said.
But economists also say consumers are still cautious and are paying off debt rather than shopping.
Overall, seasonally adjusted total retail sale rose 0.8 per cent, or $133 million, in the September quarter, Statistics New Zealand said.
ANZ senior economist Sharon Zollner said the September quarter results confirmed the "generally subdued state" of the retail sector.
Although sales volumes, both total and core, were higher than a year ago, they remained below March 2007 levels.
"Consumers are still being very cautious, focusing on repaying debt. As long as the housing market remains in reverse gear, this is likely to continue to be the case," she said.
ASB's Ms Leung said the NZ dollar's appreciation in recent months meant there was potential for more discounting of imported consumption goods.
The bank also expected some "payback" in the coming months as the strong sales results were largely driven by people rushing out to buy big-ticket items in September before the GST hike.
However, retail spending was gradually increasing and people were more willing to spend money on discretionary items, she said.
ANZ did not anticipate any significant improvement in retail sales until next year.
Statistics NZ said the rise probably reflected spending timed to beat the GST rise to 15 per cent on October 1.
"This quarterly rise is mostly due to increased sales in the September month, particularly in furniture and floor coverings, and appliance retailing," she said.
Supermarkets and grocery stores were up 1.5 per cent or $57 million in the September quarter. Appliance retailing was the largest single contributor to the rise in both total and core sales volumes in four of the past six quarters.
Both total and core retail sales, excluding the four vehicle-related industries, increased in the September month, each up 1.6 per cent.
The volume and value of core retailing both rose in the September quarter - each up 0.9 per cent - while the volume of total retailing was up 0.7 per cent.
Auckland and Canterbury led the way with the largest regional rises in the September quarter, both up 1.4 per cent. Retail sales were up by $76 million in Auckland and $29 million in Canterbury.However, in the September month, Canterbury recorded an increase of only 0.1 per cent, or $1 million, likely due to the magnitude 7.1 September 4 earthquake.