The celebrated investor Warren Buffet once remarked that it's only when the tide goes out can you see who is swimming naked.
He meant it in relation to the mid-2000s economic boom when too many people were over-exposed and taking excessive risks.
He could equally have meant it in relation to the Tauranga and Western Bay economy, because we are way too reliant on a small number of sectors to sustain economic wealth and job creation - which is risky.
Continuing the investment analogy, our local economy is nowhere near a diversified portfolio.
We are over-exposed to sectors dependent on population growth such as residential construction and all its supporting service industries.
Add the kiwifruit industry and Port of Tauranga dependent sub-sectors, and a significant part of our local economic pie is covered.
We have a few big eggs in our basket instead of lots of medium-sized ones.
In the 1990s and up to 2007, people flocked to Tauranga without necessarily securing employment because they were confident they would find a job once they arrived.
Now, none but the most optimistic would do so and, because jobs are reasonably scarce, few people are arriving and building houses, which means our biggest industry - residential construction - remains in the doldrums.
Returning to our investment analogy, the answer lies in our needing to diversify into other industries, which will stimulate job creation and residential construction, among other sectors, will rebound.
The Bay of Plenty Regional Council is making headway by focusing its economic development strategies on 13 sectors that have high-growth potential and the key performance indicator is job creation.
Priority One is receiving an encouraging response to the Business Case campaign to attract external firms to Tauranga and is driving a range of other initiatives to grow our economy.
The Tauranga Chamber of Commerce too is playing its role to grow firms through training, free business advice, access to mentors, business start-up programmes, 50 per cent subsidies for coaching and workshops, and other services.
However, notwithstanding all of the efforts by various agencies and authorities to encourage jobs and a better economy, at the end of the day the single most important player on this stage is the entrepreneur.
Entrepreneurs are those people who find new and innovative ways to find value for customers. They accept risk that most others shy away from and, above all, have the single-minded focus and determination to carry their business idea through.
Tauranga has plenty of them, but we need to attract and encourage more. As a community, we need to acknowledge them as the foundation stone of our quality of life.
You start with entrepreneurs to forge the way and everything follows - government, health care, the arts and education.
There is too much criticism of new ideas in Tauranga.
Too many letters to the editor that are against something, and not enough praise for the innovators and initiators, who are for something.
If we want our community to have good jobs for our young people so they stay here, we particularly need to support entrepreneurs in sectors that attract youngsters.
Paradoxically, perhaps this downturn will be good for Tauranga in the long term.
The property boom encouraged many entrepreneurial people into property-based ventures.
Perhaps now that there is less opportunity in property, those entrepreneurs, who are cursed with what's been described as "divine dissatisfaction" because they can't accept inactivity and the status quo, will focus on ventures in other sectors.
We are aware of new opportunities being grasped in aquaculture, new materials such as titanium, ICT, food processing, logistics, energy, ultra fast broadband-based industries, Maori businesses, tourism, education, marine services, training, retail, events and specialised manufacturing.
It's an exciting time in Tauranga for entrepreneurs and those willing to back themselves and go the extra mile. We as a community, in turn, need to back them to the hilt and let them know we value them and the particular worth they bring. Sometimes just a bit of encouragement is what people need to take that leap of faith.
Max Mason is chief executive of Tauranga Chamber of Commerce, which provides networking and support services for businesses. Email: max@tauranga.org.nz or phone: (07) 577 9823.