Jeremy Tauri: Plan carefully before dropping prices

Auckland's biggest problem is supply and building consents there trail the rest of the country, and are not keeping pace with population growth. Photo / Brett Phibbs

It seems to be everyone's favourite topic at the moment: the housing market.

Everywhere you look, the media is full of first-home buyers who desperately would like to buy a home, but can't.

The Reserve Bank is worried about what may happen to the banking system should prices fall. That has prompted it to look at loan-to-value "speed limits", which would limit the percentage of lending a bank can do to borrowers with small deposits.

The biggest problem for us in regional New Zealand is that this is such a blunt tool. You only need to talk to someone in the Far North, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua or even Masterton to hear that prices are not firing ahead.

In fact, QV data shows that although Auckland has had 13 per cent year-on-year growth, most of our regional cities are barely at 4 per cent. Some are still almost 40 per cent down on their previous market peak.

Auckland's biggest problem is supply. Building consents there trail the rest of the country, and are not keeping pace with population growth.

Targeted supply side measures are what is needed, not across-the-board demand dampers.

If LVR restrictions slow the market - and there is some debate about how effective they actually will be - this will devastate the provinces.

Flat prices in Auckland will likely mean dropping prices elsewhere. Not a huge deal on paper, perhaps, but New Zealanders are so hung up on the value of their houses it will hurt confidence. People with falling house values are less likely to spend at local businesses. Those businesses are less likely to be able to borrow, invest and employ.

Some of our regions are only just seeing a glimmer of economic hope. Let's not stomp it out before it gets going.

Unlike interest rates which, when rising, at least offer a boon to retirees with savings in the bank, macroprudential tools to cool the housing market are a no-win, except for politicians desperate to be seen to be doing something.

Bank stability is important but there already are signs that banks are implementing their own restrictions.