On-site business computing will be all but dead within a couple of years, leaving scores of local IT technicians wondering what to do with themselves.
That's the prediction of Tauranga cloud computing entrepreneur Kevin Mann.
Mr Mann, CEO of cloud software company Silicon Avenue, said businesses in the Bay and around the world were realising the benefits of operating their computing systems from huge centralised datacentres known collectively as "the cloud".
The benefits included Minimal monthly subscriptions rather than large capital outlays, easy access from around the world rather than on-site access only, and reduced dependence on local IT engineers, he said.
"My belief is that within two years from now, on-premise systems will be pretty much dead."
The simple economics of centralisation will force IT companies to incorporate the cloud into their operations in some shape or form, Mr Mann says.
The centralisation of data will mean local technicians would become redundant in their local markets, but if they were good enough they would be able to work for companies around the world from their base in Tauranga.
"We're seeing a change in your networking firms having to shift their business otherwise they'll be out of business, unless they're working in big datacentres, and we're seeing local IT companies having to change what they're doing otherwise they will go out of business."
However, managing director of cloud solutions provider Zeanz Louise Brewer said she didn't agree with Mr Mann's prediction of the imminent death of on-site computing.
"What I believe is that anyone changing their software or upgrading their servers will absolutely consider a move to the cloud because of the lower TCO (total cost of ownership), except for the larger corporations. They will guard their internal systems fiercely and their staff.
"I don't believe we will see much movement here for a number of years and they are more likely to go for a hybrid cloud which is a mix of both."
Cucumber Consulting manager Ian Gray said cloud computing offered advantages for small to medium-sized businesses, and IT infrastructure providers targeting this market would have to justify their services and costs to keep clients.
"For larger enterprises, they will likely want to control their data and move to using private cloud solutions.
"And, of course, not all New Zealand organisations can use public cloud services as the data may be held offshore and that may entail legal barriers.
"A cloud-based investment for these organisations will need careful thought and a strategic business focused response as it may be that a mix of cloud and on-premise solutions offers a harmony of services that satisfies the business requirements better than one way or the other."