Poll: US election 2016 shapes up as a contest of negatives

The coming presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump begins in a virtual dead heat, a competition between two candidates viewed unfavorably by a majority of the current electorate and with voters motivated as much by whom they don't like as by whom they do, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Never in the history of the Post-ABC poll have the two major party nominees been viewed as harshly as Clinton and Trump.

Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters say they have negative impressions of both major candidates. Overall, Clinton's net negative rating among registered voters is minus-16, while Trump's is minus-17, though Trump's numbers have improved since March. Among all adults, Trump's net negatives are significantly higher than those of Clinton.

As the primaries are set to draw to a close next month, Democrats and Republicans have begun to consolidate around their presumptive nominees, even though Republican voters remain divided on the question of whether Trump reflects the core values of their party. Partisans in both parties say they are confident that they will be unified for the fall campaign, though one-fifth of Republicans express doubts.

In all, the survey foreshadows a hard-fought, competitive and negative general election. At this point, the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat among registered voters, with Trump favored by 46 per cent and Clinton favored by 44 per cent. That represents an 11-point shift toward the presumptive Republican nominee since March. Among all adults, Clinton holds a six-point lead (48 per cent to 42 per cent), down from 18 points in March.

Nonetheless, Clinton is rated ahead of Trump across a range of attributes and issues, and she is seen as having superior experience, temperament and personality to be president. Trump is viewed as unqualified by a majority of adults, but he has strong appeal to voters as the anti-Clinton candidate who can bring change to Washington in an election year in which outsiders have thrived.

Meanwhile, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who has given Clinton a stiff challenge in the contest for the Democratic nomination, enjoys the most positive rating of the three. Among registered voters, Sanders is net positive - 49 per cent to 41 per cent - and has seen his image improve steadily the longer he has been a candidate.

The other politician who is judged positively at this moment is President Barack Obama. This is important to Clinton's prospects in the fall. His overall approval rating among all adults remained at 51 per cent, as it was in March, while his disapproval rose from 43 per cent to 46 per cent, within the margin of error.

Among those registered voters who say they favor Clinton, 48 per cent say their vote is in support of the candidate while an identical percentage say their vote is mainly to oppose Trump. Among Trump's backers, 44 per cent say they are casting an affirmative vote for the Republican, while 53 per cent say their motivation is to oppose Clinton.

Support for the two candidates as they begin their direct engagement appears tepid. Less than half of those in Clinton's column say they strongly support her, while a bare majority say they support her "somewhat." The numbers for Trump are virtually identical.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during a campaign stop. Photo / AP
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during a campaign stop. Photo / AP

Nor are people fully satisfied with their choice of major party nominees - 51 per cent call themselves satisfied while 44 per cent say they want a third-party option.

Some leading Republican leaders and some grass-roots activists have been exploring the possibilities of finding a third-party candidate to stand as an alternative.

The Post-ABC poll tested a hypothetical three-way race that included Trump, Clinton and Mitt Romney, the GOP's 2012 nominee and one of the most outspoken critics of the New York businessman. Among registered voters, Clinton gets 37 per cent, Trump 35 per cent and Romney 22 per cent. Underscoring the divisions within the GOP ranks, Romney gets a third of Republicans in a three-way race.

Among registered voters, Clinton runs away from Trump on such attributes as having the right experience to be president, having the personality and temperament to serve in the Oval Office and having realistic policy proposals. Trump's strongest calling card is as a change agent. The two are judged more or less evenly on honesty and trustworthiness, on strength of leadership and on keeping the country safe.

On issues, registered voters clearly prefer Trump on taxes and by a narrower margin on international trade. Clinton has a wide lead on issues of importance to women and rates ahead of Trump on dealing with an international crisis and handling international relations, and holds a slight edge on handling immigration.

The question of whether voters are looking for a candidate with political experience or someone who comes from outside the political establishment remains a fault line of potential significance. At present, 52 per cent of Americans say they favor experience while 43 per cent say they want an outsider.

In the winter and early spring of this year, experience was significantly more in favor - preferred by nearly 30 points over being an outsider. Fluctuations in that choice likely will affect the fortunes of the two candidates, as Clinton is the embodiment of political experience and Trump is a symbol of the outsider promising big change.

The poll suggests that Trump has more vulnerabilities than Clinton, but that opposition to the former secretary of state can lead some voters with a mixed to unfavorable view of Trump to support him nonetheless.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event. Photo / AP
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event. Photo / AP

Among all adults, 58 per cent rate Trump as not qualified to be president. In contrast, 63 per cent say Clinton is qualified. But among those who say Trump is not qualified, 3 in 4 say they support Clinton for president. An additional 14 per cent are backing Trump, and the remainder say they would pick neither candidate or might stay home in November.

Another indicator came when Americans were asked whether Trump shows enough respect to people with whom he disagrees. More than 3 in 4 said he does not, including 55 per cent who say it is a major problem. But he still enjoys the support of 30 per cent of that overall group, most of them people who do not regard his treatment of people who disagree with him as a major problem.

The coalitions behind Trump and Clinton hew to the same contours seen earlier this year. He holds a huge lead among men while she has a substantial, though smaller, lead among women. Clinton also meets some resistance among Democratic men.

Trump is winning 57 per cent of white voters, while Clinton gets just 33 per cent. For purposes of comparison, Obama in 2012 lost the white vote, 39 per cent to 59 per cent. Among nonwhites, Clinton is at 69 per cent while Trump is at 21 per cent. Four years ago, Romney got 19 per cent of the nonwhite vote.

Trump is getting 85 per cent of Republicans, and losing 8 per cent to Clinton. She wins 86 per cent of Democrats but loses 11 per cent to Trump. Clinton, of course, is in a contest with Sanders that continues to split Democrats. Trump's narrow overall lead among registered voters comes mainly from his current strength among independents, who prefer him to Clinton by 13 points.

Trump has consistently scored best with voters lacking college degrees, and that is again the case in the Post-ABC poll. He wins voters without a college degree by double digits; Clinton wins those with college degrees by a similar margin. Among whites, Trump does even better. He breaks even among white voters with college degrees and trounces her among those without degrees.

Some of these subgroups are subject to some change as the campaign progresses, assuming further consolidation within each party.

When people were asked who would do more to advance the economic interests of working-class people or middle-class people, the results showed that Clinton enjoyed a statistically insignificant advantage over Trump among registered voters but a statistically significant advantage among all adults.

Meanwhile, despite his populist message and support among working-class whites, Trump is overwhelmingly seen as a candidate whose economic policies would help the wealthy, by roughly 40 points.

Trump's message that international trade hurts the country has majority support among all adults, with 53 per cent saying those trade deals have done more to take away jobs than create jobs. But his support for deporting the roughly 11 million undocumented immigrants, as well as his call for a temporary ban on Muslims, is opposed by 50 per cent, slightly more than those who back the proposals.

Trump has refused to release his tax returns, in contradiction of the practice of presidential candidates dating back decades. More than 6 in 10 Americans say he should conform to that custom and release them, including most independents but fewer than half of Republicans.

The Post-ABC poll was conducted May 16-19 among a random national sample of 1,005 adults, including interviews on conventional and cellular phones. The margin of sampling error for overall results and among the sample of 829 registered voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

- Washington Post

Get the news delivered straight to your inbox

Receive the day’s news, sport and entertainment in our daily email newsletter

SIGN UP NOW

© Copyright 2017, NZME. Publishing Limited

Assembled by: (static) on production apcf05 at 30 Apr 2017 11:25:36 Processing Time: 1129ms