COMMENT
The Brumbies, Crusaders and Sharks are semifinal certainties, I believe, leaving a cluster of teams scrapping over the final position.
And for my money, the Blues will take the last spot, setting up a likely semifinal clash against the Brumbies in Canberra.
That's my view, anyway, from the other side of the world, where I manage to watch about three Super 12 games per round.
The first obvious thing about the Super 12 from this distance is that test rugby it is not. And on this note, here's a point for Stephen Larkham to consider when he weighs up the massive offer to play in England.
South African back Robbie Fleck, who is playing over here, told me that the physical load at the breakdown in the England game is far tougher than in the Super 12. Larkham, who's a slightly built character, would be playing a lot more games and taking more of a battering.
The Super 12 is what it is, often a game of high risk and where the Blues play the riskiest game of all.
The New Zealand teams generally take more chances, and especially the Blues and Hurricanes. I can't fully answer why that is, but quite clearly they have a lot more Polynesian athletes in their teams who not only have enormous gifts, but like to play a riskier brand of rugby.
It's this very quality which makes the Blues the side best equipped to beat the Brumbies in Canberra. The Brumbies appear to be back in full flight but they are a far tougher proposition at home than away.
They are very much a player-driven side, and as I have stated over recent days, it is that senior player influence which has led to the decision not to renew David Nucifora's coaching contract.
The Brumbies won't miss a beat through this drama, and have always exhibited an us-against-the-world quality that gets through any trouble. And they've had a few, involving taxi incidents etc.
The Blues' unorthodox approach, and individual talent, is what could undo them in Canberra though.
The Crusaders play a test-match style of game which is driving them into the playoffs and I suspect they will have to return to South Africa to play the Sharks in the semifinals. My money would be on the Crusaders.
The Sharks have done better than anyone, including themselves, could have expected and they would be a handful in front of a big home crowd. But if the Crusaders do play them in a semifinal, their experience should get them through.
Which brings us back to the Blues, who I expect to be far too strong for the Stormers tonight.
You can't mention the Blues without mentioning Carlos Spencer. What a player he is, although he will have to temper his game in the All Blacks. He won't be able to afford to take those sort of risks.
Spencer epitomises the sort of dilemma that faces New Zealand rugby. It has brought them success in tournament type situations, the Super 12 and Tri-Nations. But errors have cost the All Blacks dearly when it really counts in one-off situations - most notably the World Cup.
I expect Graham Henry to bring a lot more discipline to the All Black game. He also has a great team with him, in Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith.
The pressure is really on Hansen to deliver the forward platform that Henry will demand.
Hansen is a former back who is now in charge of the most vital aspect of the All Blacks' game. It's hard to compare the Welsh and All Black situations - the Welsh are behind in so many areas. But he has made big improvements with Wales.
Auckland and Canterbury players will dominate the All Blacks again. It will be the usual suspects, I suspect. The big question is - can Hansen get the All Blacks to do the job at scrum, lineout and breakdown time? If he can, the All Blacks will be in good shape.
* John Connolly is a former coach of the Reds and is now coaching Bath in the English premiership.
* Visit nzherald.co.nz throughout the weekend for Super 12 updates.
2004 Super 12 draw, results and points table
New Zealand squads and information
Australian squads
South African squads
<i>John Connolly:</i> Blues good for spot in semis
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