By PETER JESSUP
The Warriors have had nearly as many false dawns as they have breakfasts, so it is understandable that a lot of people still automatically write them off after a stumble like the one against St George a fortnight ago.
Beating a depleted Broncos side last weekend, with fatigue costing them at the end, did not count as a turnaround.
Winning against the Sharks in Cronulla tomorrow would help.
But finally to kill all doubts about their fragility, mentally and physically, the Warriors are going to have to win a grand final.
With 10 rounds to go, 20 points on offer to each team, the only sides capable of a top-four finish - barring a major crash by one of the front-runners - are the Bulldogs (on 29 points), the Warriors and Knights (26), Broncos (25), Roosters (21) and Eels (20).
The Warriors need to win a minimum 12 more to ensure they are one of the front-running four who get a home playoff when finals start in the second week of September.
They take two points from the bye next weekend and play four home games and five away. The Ericsson Stadium home assignments include Brisbane, the Bulldogs and Eels.
The hardest away game is against the fifth-placed Roosters, so in the run home they meet four of the sides now in the top six.
The Bulldogs play five of those teams and so do the Broncos. The Eels also play four, the Knights and Roosters three.
So they have every chance because it is clear that all sides are going to drop some games. The Warriors just have to win the ones they should, against the four sides in the lower reaches of the competition ladder, and if they go 50-50 on the harder tests they will still be up there.
Get to finals and it all starts again. But already talk among pundits in Sydney is of sure elimination for any team who have to play game one at Ericsson.
They are equally as sure the Warriors will not win a grand final at Stadium Australia, should they make it that far.
In the end, injuries to key players could decide things.
What chance the Knights without Andrew Johns, the Roosters without Brad Fittler, or the Warriors without Stacey Jones?
And maybe the Bulldogs and Broncos are the most resilient sides.
The Eels players are perhaps more used to filling in all over the field than any others, but some regard that as a handicap because they do not play to specialties.
There is one thing everyone in the game agrees on - rugby league is a game of statistics. On that score the Warriors are contenders, not pretenders.
They have the most tries in the competition this season and most points (486), ahead of the defending champions Newcastle (457), leaders the Bulldogs (432), the Broncos (394), Roosters (377) and Eels (338).
Clinton Toopi has been in the top ranks of try-scorers all season with the Dogs' centre Nigel Vagana and Knights wing Timana Tahu.
Ali Lauiti'iti is the best offloader in the NRL. He and prop Jerry Seuseu are among the game's most effective forwards. Their statistics rank alongside those of Broncos prop Shane Webcke, who is generally regarded as the world's best.
Jones tops the statistics for try-assists.
The Warriors score first 76 per cent of the time and Ivan Cleary, kicking 86 per cent of the goals, is the competition's leading points-scorer, with 158.
So there is nothing wrong with their attack.
The Dogs are hardest team to score against (letting in 224 points), the Broncos second-best (conceding 230), closely followed by the Knights (232), Roosters (235), Eels (247) and the Warriors, closing out the six (254).
So their defence still needs some work if they are to foot it with the Knights, for example, close to their own line, or the Broncos or Bulldogs from long range.
The players consistently making most tackles for the Warriors are Kevin Campion and Awen Guttenbeil.
P. J. Marsh and Lance Hohaia always figure high in the tackle count and in the missed tackle count, because the little guys are always targets for the big runners of any opposition. Of course, you have to be able to win away from home.
The Warriors have won six from six in Australia, the only loss away from Ericsson being to the Bulldogs in Wellington.
If you follow the form line and statistics, throw in a couple of assumptions, including Brisbane to lose after contributing key players to the Kangaroo's test against Great Britain next Friday, then the Bulldogs look best bet to finish minor premiers.
The Warriors and Knights should stay locked in a fight for second and third. The Broncos should get fourth, just heading the Roosters and Eels.
Closest to the six contenders right now are the Eagles and Sharks on 16 and Dragons on 15.
Form says all should lose this weekend to teams one, two and four, the Bulldogs, Warriors and Broncos, effectively ending their chances of a top-four place.
Then follow the Storm and Wests Tigers, who will this weekend battle to end the top-eight aspirations of one or other.
The Warriors play the scrapping Tigers at home in the last round of 26, the Eels go to Townsville to face the bottom-placed Cowboys.
Newcastle face the harder assignment of the Dragons, away. The Bulldogs and Broncos play the top match of the final round, so one has to lose.
The Broncos have the toughest run home: the Dragons away next week on the back of a Friday night test against Great Britain, then playing every other side in the top six.
Rugby League: Fans insist on grand final win
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