[Readers - please note: This story is from 2006]
Rotorua, Taupo and Whakatane are set to be wiped out in a massive overdue earthquake, say geologists.
The shocking prediction has been made at a Natural Hazards Management Conference in Christchurch.
Geology experts Tim Davies and Mauri McSaveney have predicted that an alpine fault earthquake is overdue, and would result in the East Cape ripping away from New Zealand, destroying the plateau that Rotorua is based on and taking Taupo and Whakatane with it.
The pair say the earthquake will strike "out of the blue" and cause widespread death, shut down power generators, create tsunamis within New Zealand and overwhelm emergency services.
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"The most likely time [for the quake] is now. The next most likely time for it to happen is tomorrow," Associate Professor Davies, of Canterbury University, told the conference.
"It will occur with no recognisable warning. We can't manage it - we have to adapt to it."
The pair have outlined a nightmarish scenario in the aftermath of the quake and are urging people to be prepared as best they can. Overseas help would be needed when the quake struck.
"Shaking damage and land instability will disrupt surface transport for months, tourists will be trapped, and distribution of vital supplies (eg, food, fuel) will be limited. Hydro stations will shut down immediately and may be slow to restart, power reticulation will be damaged. Only satellite phones will remain in use."
"No services will be as normal."
The pair say the Alpine fault quake is a certainty. It is only a matter of when.
"The interval since the last event (in 1717) is longer than any interval between known earlier events."
Rotorua historian Don Stafford said the experts' predictions were probably right and residents should be prepared.
"Who else could you listen to other than an expert. They have their reasons for why they believe they are worth listening to."
Mr Stafford said historically there had been major eruptions and earthquakes in the Central North Island, with the most recent being Mt Tarawera in 1886.
"Lake Rotorua was a gigantic eruption 230,000 years ago. There have been gigantic eruptions for thousands of years.
"The historic massive eruption of Lake Taupo was recorded in China, Rome and Italy."
Mr Stafford said the Central North Island had been relatively quiet during the past few decades.
"We have had it pretty sweet and I don't doubt for one minute that there will be more big eruptions. ... We would be foolish to presume that it won't happen just because we are living here."
Rotorua Civil Defence emergency management co-ordinator Pauline Hitchcock said the experts' predictions were "news to her".
"But they seem to say it's going to happen now and to stay indoors ... we have heard nothing about this from the Ministry (of Civil Defence and Emergency Management).
"I'll be finding out more about this today," she said.
additional reporting APN