With less than a week to go, the election could hardly be closer. National will certainly "win", in the sense of being first past the post, but if Labour can get more of its supporters to the polls and the Greens do as well as they are doing, the next Government could be chosen by Winston Peters.
As Rodney Hide points out in his column today, voting for Peters is akin to not voting at all. Peters is the only party leader whose potential voters have been given no idea which side he would prefer. Anyone who votes for him obviously does not care whether Labour or National leads the next Government, they are relinquishing their right to decide.
This time next week the people will have spoken. An election is that rare and precious moment when everyone in the country can be heard. Every vote counted is a decision made by a New Zealand citizen or resident alone in a booth. It is a moment of power and responsibility that might not strike voters until they are behind the screen, picking up the pencil.
Some never make it to the polling station. Later they offer electoral researchers many reasons for not voting, none of them entirely convincing. About 40 per cent of those who did not vote at the last election told Statistics NZ they "didn't get around to it" or forgot, or were not interested, or didn't think their vote would make a difference, or didn't think it mattered which party governed them.
Another 30 per cent did not feel they knew enough about the issues and the parties, or did not know an election was on or how to vote, or could not get to a booth because they were too busy, or sick, or overseas.
None of these is a good excuse. Voting could hardly be made easier. If the registration efforts and urgings of electoral officials are not enough, the major political parties will do everything they can to get a voter to the polls. Labour, which believes it has most to lose in low turn-outs, may be considerably helped this time by opportunities for early voting. Leader David Cunliffe has voted to publicise the fact that polls are open and his chief of staff, Matt McCarten, a smart organiser, will be getting the vote out already.
For that reason alone, Labour may be doing better than polls are indicating. But National has the worry of a front-runner that some of its supporters will think they need not make the effort. Every poll that shows National capable of governing alone could mean it is less likely to happen. National will need partners and every vote could count.
The decision is in your hands, make it well.