NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather forecasts

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
    • The Great NZ Road Trip
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
    • Cooking the Books
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy / Employment

Brian Fallow: Debt or jobs - that's the big decision

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·NZ Herald·
9 Nov, 2011 04:30 PM7 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

The face of work has changed remarkably in 20 years, challenging most business models. Photo / Janna Dixon

The face of work has changed remarkably in 20 years, challenging most business models. Photo / Janna Dixon

Brian Fallow
Opinion by Brian Fallow
Brian Fallow is a former economics editor of The New Zealand Herald
Learn more

The central issue dividing the main parties in this election should be this: which is our bigger problem right now, too much debt or too few jobs?

Instead Labour seems intent on showing - rather implausibly - that it will worship just as ardently as National at the altar of fiscal austerity.

Last week's labour market data told us that more than two years of recovery have made scant inroads into the unemployment rate.

The 157,000 people officially unemployed (a subset of the 254,000 counted as jobless) represent 6.6 per cent of the labour force. That compares with 6.5 per cent in September 2009 and an average of 6.5 per cent over the interval.

Certainly, Christchurch's travails have not helped; 27,000 jobs have been lost there over the past year. But on the other hand the unemployment rate would have been higher without the net loss of 33,000 people to Australia over the past year.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The employment rate is the proportion of the working age population (everyone 15 or older) actually working (for payment). It is 63.9 per cent.

It has been around that level for the past two years, down from around 66 per cent during the last boom, but higher than the 60 per cent in the Asian crisis recession and 56 per cent of the early 1990s recession.

This is a high employment rate by international standards, Bank of New Zealand economist Craig Ebert says, which in turn reflects the fact that labour force participation has held up remarkably well during the recent economic downswing and is structurally far higher than in the past.

Well, good for us.

But the bottom line is that the rate at which the economy has been generating new jobs has been barely keeping pace with growth in the labour force, even with Australia as a safety valve.

Discover more

New Zealand|politics

Rise in unemployed provides some ammunition

03 Nov 04:30 PM
New Zealand|politics

Our Kiwis who cannot come home

05 Nov 04:30 PM
Opinion

Tapu Misa: National needs an attitude change on job creation

06 Nov 04:30 PM
Employment

Global economy shows some signs of life

08 Nov 04:30 PM

Is that good enough? Is that the best we can do?

The unemployment rate peaked at 7 per cent in December 2009.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Goldman Sachs economist Philip Borkin points out that the improvement since then, at just 0.4 percentage points, is the slowest for any recovery since the 1970s.

Part of the explanation is cyclical - a weaker-than-normal recovery generally - but Borkin's analysis suggests there has also been a rise in the structural unemployment rate.

Structural unemployment reflects a mismatch between the supply and demand for labour. It therefore does not respond to monetary stimulus as cyclical unemployment would and is longer-lasting.

Borkin estimates the structural unemployment rate at 5.4 per cent, up from a pre-recession trough of 4.6 per cent.

Business surveys have been recording a rising proportion of firms saying they are finding it harder to find the skilled labour they need.

Unemployment rates are particularly high among the young - 28 per cent for those aged 15 to 19 and 11.2 per cent in the 20 to 24 group.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

If that means there is an especially large mismatch between the skills they have and what employers are looking for, the fact that they are young also means they have more time and incentive to acquire the skills that are required.

But it will not happen by magic.

The challenge for the politicians contending for our votes is to explain what structural policy changes they offer to deal with this structural problem.

So the question about which is the more pressing issue, too much debt or not enough jobs, and whether the times call for austerity or more stimulus, is far from rhetorical.

Bill Gross is interesting on this point. He is the co-founder and chief investment officer of Pimco, one of the biggest fund managers in the world with more than $1 trillion entrusted to it.

The investment question of the day, he says in a recent commentary, should be: "Can you solve a debt crisis with more debt?"

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Since 2008 policymakers have been proceeding on the basis that the answer is yes.

Central banks slashed interest rates to encourage more borrowing, and governments have resorted to deficit spending on a scale that has pushed public debt through the roof.

Such policies make sense if, and only if, they generate growth.

But Gross argues that the relative lack of growth of the past few years in developed economies is structural rather than cyclical and resistant to the traditional remedies of stimulative monetary and fiscal policy.

The factors he cites are globalisation, technological innovation and demographic change.

Consider how much the world economy has expanded over the past 20 years, with China and the Soviet bloc abandoning communism and India abandoning its post-colonial doctrine of autarky.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Globalisation has opened access to cheap labour elsewhere.

New Zealanders who have to compete with that are on a hiding to nothing.

The challenge for politicians is therefore: what are you doing or would you do to lift education and skills?

Twenty years ago, most people had not even heard of the internet. Now the revolution in information and communications technology, liberating as it may be in many respects, is challenging the traditional business models in all sorts of industries, from retailing and entertainment to newspapers.

The challenge for politicians is therefore: what are your policies to foster innovation and the commercialisation thereof?

Twenty years ago even the oldest of the babyboomers still had 20 years of their working lives ahead of them.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Now, as Gross puts it: "If boomers are starting to retire or at least plan more seriously for retirement, why will lower interest rates cause them to spend more?"

On the contrary, low interest rates may encourage them to save more to compensate for lower-yielding nest eggs.

The challenge for our politicians is therefore to explain what they would do to ensure a larger pool of savings gets to irrigate job-rich and export-focused investment in this country.

ASSET POLICY WON'T SHIFT BOTTOM LINE

The fishiest of the red herrings in this election's debate are the claims both major parties are making about the fiscal impact of their preferred policies on state asset sales.

National highlights the fact that every dollar it gets from selling down its stake in the four state-owned energy companies and Air New Zealand is a dollar less it has to borrow.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Labour highlights the fact that by maintaining the status quo it would not be diluting the Government's share of their future dividend streams.

What these shares are worth is the present value of the future income they will deliver, adjusted for risk.

If they are sold at a fair price and the Crown's borrowing requirement reduced by the same amount, it will shrink both sides of the balance sheet, assets and liabilities, by the same amount.

There is a world of difference between reducing debt that way and doing it the hard, old-fashioned way by curbing spending.

It will neither strengthen nor weaken the Crown's financial position.

Equally, retaining the assets and keeping the dividend flow intact entails correspondingly more debt and a higher interest bill. Both revenue and expenditure (which includes finance costs) will be higher.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Again, broadly, it is a wash.

There are, of course, all sorts of other reasons why you might want to partially sell, or to keep, the SOEs.

But the impact on the Government's finances is not one of them.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Employment

Premium
Economy|inflation

Upbeat outlook: Westpac economists see recovery gathering steam

12 May 05:00 PM
Employment

'Like having our throats cut': Couple called into meeting, both told their jobs were gone

11 May 02:32 AM
Premium
Opinion

Liam Dann: In a world of grim news, here are five economic bright spots

10 May 05:00 PM

One tiny baby’s fight to survive

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Employment

Premium
Upbeat outlook: Westpac economists see recovery gathering steam

Upbeat outlook: Westpac economists see recovery gathering steam

12 May 05:00 PM

Strong export prices are helping to drive the economic recovery.

'Like having our throats cut': Couple called into meeting, both told their jobs were gone

'Like having our throats cut': Couple called into meeting, both told their jobs were gone

11 May 02:32 AM
Premium
Liam Dann: In a world of grim news, here are five economic bright spots

Liam Dann: In a world of grim news, here are five economic bright spots

10 May 05:00 PM
Premium
Jobless rate better than expected, part-time worker increase credited

Jobless rate better than expected, part-time worker increase credited

07 May 03:30 AM
Connected workers are safer workers 
sponsored

Connected workers are safer workers 

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP