KEY POINTS:
National leader John Key was doubtless reflecting more on his own experience in National than any knowledge of Labour when he suggested yesterday that MP David Benson-Pope might stand as an independent after being dumped as Labour candidate in Dunedin South.
Key forced the deselection of Brian Neeson
in Helensville ahead of the 2002 election and Neeson stood against him, gaining a respectable 19.73 per cent of the electorate vote to Key's 34.18 per cent.
Mr Benson-Pope won't repeat that at this year's election.
It would not be in his character. He is Labour to the core and it would not be in Labour's interests or his electorate's.
And there's only so much humiliation a guy can take.
In his heart he knows he has been largely the victim of his own foolishness than an unfair party.
For someone who ran a remarkably tight and disciplined ship over his colleagues as a senior whip, to the point of unpopularity, Benson-Pope was incredibly lax in managing his own problems as a minister.
Eventually he was forced out of Cabinet when it became clear he had misled the public and the media.
He initially insisted he had not expressed an opinion on whether he could work with Environment communications manager Madeleine Setchell, who is partnered to Key's press secretary - he later admitted in Parliament that he had expressed an opinion before Ministry for the Environment chief executive Hugh Logan sacked her. He resigned because Clark was about to sack him.
Helen Clark is said to have softened towards Benson-Pope recently and would not have been horrified had he been selected.
That may have been a view aimed more at Dunedin Labour than the MP himself to avoid dangerous local perceptions that the selection was a ninth floor (Clark) or Willis St (party HQ) jack-up.
Labour is fighting an uphill battle against National's popularity without having to contend with internal wars.
Two former whips were in Dunedin on Saturday to give Benson-Pope personal support, Taupo MP Mark Burton and Otaki MP Darren Hughes, as well as Hamilton West MP Martin Gallagher.
Their presence may also have shown locals that this was not a case of their man being ostracised by the party - it was about politics and what was good for the party.
In the end communication consultant Clare Curran organised enough local support to win the day.
She does not come without risks, with an inquiry about whether her contracts at the Environment Ministry were the result of political connections. The inquiry was published just before Christmas last year and National will be tempted to do more with it when the House resumes next week. Lucky for her the target is Energy Minister David Parker and Clark's adviser Heather Simpson, but the mud may still stick to her. Dunedin was the venue of Labour's last deselection traumas.
Labour MP Brian Macdonnell propped up the dying days of the Muldoon National Government in 1984 when Clive Matthewson was selected to stand in Dunedin West. Macdonnell stood as Independent Labour against Matthewson - who quit Labour in 1995 in a mass defection of MPs to form the United Party - but won only 16.7 per cent of the electorate vote to Matthewson's 49.5 per cent.
Benson-Pope is taking time out and won't be at the Labour caucus at Premier House today. He and his supporters have some wounds to lick.
But the circumstances do not suggest that history will repeat itself.