National edges ahead of Labour

By JOHN ARMSTRONG political editor

National has narrowly overhauled Labour in the latest Herald DigiPoll survey as voters tell Helen Clark to get to grips with economic problems on the anniversary of last year's election victory.

Many more voters are expressing pessimism about the economy than in a poll taken in March during the heady days of the Coalition's "honeymoon."

The period since March has brought rises in petrol prices, a backlash from business, plunging economic confidence and a new low for the dollar.

But Labour and the Alliance now feel they are through the worst as they mark their November 27 victory anniversary - and other opinion polls have reflected a subsequent bounce-back in economic optimism.

Many voters in the DigiPoll sample still query the Government's economic competence. Nearly 50 per cent of those polled over the past 10 days doubt the Government is getting to grips with economic problems, against 39 per cent who feel it is.

Most voters are not feeling any more positive about New Zealand than they did before the election - a marked turnaround from the optimism expressed in the March poll.

Nearly half still think the country is in safe hands - but that is again a reduction on the clear majority expressing that view in March.

Despite that, the centre-left parties still enjoy a comfortable cushion, with Labour's 40.2 per cent support buttressed by the Alliance and the Greens, which are both just above the 5 per cent threshold. If that result was replicated at election-time, those parties would hold at least 65 seats in the 120-seat Parliament.

Labour is down by more than six percentage points on the last DigiPoll survey in June, just after the Budget. But the party is still above the 38 per cent vote it recorded at the polling booths a year ago.

National continues its recovery, jumping by nearly six points to top Labour on 40.9 per cent - well above its election showing of 30.5 per cent.

However, National continues to be handicapped by Act, with its likely coalition partner still slumped below 4 per cent. New Zealand First has improved marginally to 2.8 per cent, but will clearly have to rely on Winston Peters holding Tauranga.

Jenny Shipley has fallen below 14 per cent in the preferred prime minister stakes, while Bill English has crept up to nearly 6 per cent.

Helen Clark has dropped sharply from 42 per cent to just over 32 per cent - a long way below the nearly 56 per cent in March.

The Government also appears to be getting its message across about "keeping our word." A majority believe the Coalition is fulfilling its promises.

The survey of 767 people was done between November 14 and 22. The period saw Helen Clark's attendance at Apec, the release of a National Party memo giving an upbeat assessment of the economy, a pay rise for MPs and dearer petrol. The margin of error is 3.5 per cent.