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Home / New Zealand

Claire Trevett: Bill English sentenced to leaving On His Own Terms

By Comment by Claire Trevett
NZ Herald·
31 Jan, 2018 04:00 PM4 mins to read

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During his stand-up in Wellington, National Leader Bill English denies that there is any challenge to his leadership from within the party. / Mark Mitchell
Opinion

A curious thing about State of the Nation addresses is all leaders like to give them but few like to describe them as such, so hackneyed has the term become.

For many years a Green co-leader has delivered a more sanctimonious version of a State of the Nation address, dubbed the State of the Planet address.

In his State of the Planet address last week, co-leader James Shaw explained the distinction between the State of the Planet and State of the Nation by saying the former was "an eco-centric take on the more ego-centric State of the Nation tradition".

Shaw then rather spoiled this distinction. He ended his supposedly non ego-centric speech by quoting himself.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern opted against a State of the Nation speech altogether but did give what was described as a "major" speech last night.

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It was a state of the nation speech by another name, or rather by no name at all.

She used it to talk about child poverty.

National leader Bill English did deliver a State of the Nation speech yesterday, focusing on National's achievements, workplace relations and the perils of the Labour-led Government's fondness for trees, trains and trade unions.

He added to the campaigns National is running aimed at ensuring the survival of endangered species. The first was the petition to save the Roads of National Significance.

Yesterday's was the campaign to save jobs he claimed were in danger from Labour's industrial relations reforms.

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But it was overshadowed by a bout of speculation on the state of the National leadership and whether English himself was an endangered species.

National MPs insisted there was nothing to see here and English would be able to leave at a time of his own choosing.

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So English found himself condemned to the sentence of being Able to Leave on His Own Terms.

One of the most misappropriated phrases in politics is that a leader has left on his or her own terms.

As soon as somebody says a particular leader will be given the dignity of leaving on their own terms the writing is on the wall.

It effectively means somebody has stamped a "best by" date on their leadership and the date is nigh.

Leaders never really leave on their own terms – but if they are respected, people turn a blind eye to the reality that it was a choice forced upon them and pretend it was their own decision.

So it was for former Labour Andrew Little last year and his former deputy Annette King.

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Both stood down and much noise was made about how it was their own decision although had they waited a little longer, somebody else would have taken it upon themselves to make the decision for them.

That choice is usually forced upon them either by the polls, by voters on election day or by their own colleagues.

No leader bar John Key has genuinely left on their own terms in recent times.

English took a tip from the John Key playbook in dealing with it.

He made a joke, observing it was wonderful to see such strong media interest in his State of the Nation speech.

But if things really were on English's own terms he would either be Prime Minister now or he would lead National to victory in 2020 and be Prime Minister then.

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The accepted wisdom is that the latter won't happen but given the massive breaches in the rules of normal politics over the last year, anything is possible.

The usual rule of politics dictates that a leader who "loses" an election also loses a job.

This time round things are not so black and white.

English's main hope of survival is also National's dilemma.

Its MPs will be weighing up whether the party will actually be better off under a new leader than under English who remains popular.

While Labour had an obvious successor in Ardern, National does not have anybody the party can guarantee will be more popular than English.

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There is high potential for a leadership change to backfire, especially if English is seen to have been shafted.

Labour at least will be in a high state of excitement. After nine years of putting up with National's jibes about leadership finally it was their turn to make the jibes.

The speculation and muttering was always going to happen.

English can take some solace in knowing that when it does happen, the esteem in which he is held will ensure he is one of the few allowed to get away with saying it was on his own terms.

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