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Home / New Zealand

Lower growth in diversity for South Island

Vaimoana Tapaleao
By Vaimoana Tapaleao
Pasifika Editor·NZ Herald·
10 Nov, 2015 03:41 AM2 mins to read

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New Zealand's diverse population will continue to become so over the next 20 years.

New Zealand's diverse population will continue to become so over the next 20 years.

New Zealand's diverse population will continue to become so over the next 20 years - but not so much in the South Island.

According to official population projections data revealed this week, many areas - particularly in Auckland - will have high numbers of Maori, Asian and Pasifika in 2038.

Some parts of the city will see a dramatic drop in European Kiwis, however, particularly in parts of South Auckland, where there is already a high population of Pacific Islanders.

READ MORE:
• How your neighbourhood will change by 2038
• Explore projections of ethnic makeups in NZ neighbourhoods on the Herald Insights section

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In the South Island, the projections show there will continue to be very few people with Asian and Pasifika backgrounds in some areas.

Currently in Dunedin, 90 per cent of the population are listed as European or other. Eight per cent of people are Maori, 8 per cent are Asian and 3 per cent identify as Pacific.

In 2038, the Pasifika population is up to 4 per cent, Asian at 11 per cent and Maori at 14 per cent. Europeans go down to 82 per cent.

The population in Christchurch in 23 years will see 77 per cent of people with European backgrounds, 13 per cent Maori and 5 per cent Pacific. The Asian population goes from 10 per cent to 19 per cent.

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Otago's make-up projection is 2038 will see the majority of the population (93 per cent) being European. There will be 13 per cent Maori, 6 per cent Asian and 4 per cent Pasifika.

In comparison to these areas in the south of the country, some parts of the North Island will see a marked drop in the number of Europeans.

In the Otara-Papatoetoe local board area, there will only be 7 per cent of Europeans living there - a big drop from the 22 per cent currently calling that area home. The number of Asians living here will go from 31 to 48 per cent, while the Pacific rate will go from 46 to 47 per cent.

Over in West Auckland, in the Henderson-Massey local board zone, more than half of people living there right now are European. But in 2038, that majority drops to 42 per cent; while the Asian community jumps from 22 per cent to 36 per cent.

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