John Armstrong: 'Hero to zero' unlikely for Key

Ricki Herbert and John Key. Photo / Brett Phibbs

While Phil Goff would have felt it more keenly, it would be surprising if at least a soupcon of anxiety did not shiver up John Key's spine, too, when he heard Kevin Rudd was about to be dumped as leader of the Australian Labor Party.

The almost indecent haste displayed by the party's panic-stricken but all-powerful factions in replacing Rudd as Prime Minister provided ample illustration of just how cruel politics can be as Rudd tried, but failed, to choke back tears following his ousting.

His eviction from the top job was a brutal reminder of how swiftly public sentiment can turn against a supposedly-popular leader.

Once such a shift has occurred, it is nigh on impossible to reverse. Rudd's caucus was well aware of that. By the time the putsch became "breaking news", Rudd was a broken man.

On Wednesday evening, he was vowing to stand his ground and fight. By Thursday morning he had accepted party unity must always prevail.

The episode should serve as a reminder to Key that every day you wake up as Prime Minister you are one day closer to your appointment with your executioners - otherwise known as your colleagues.

That brutal equation applies to all prime ministers - unless they walk first because they have the prescience to realise they're about to get the old heave-ho. Very few do. And most definitely not when, like Rudd, they have only been in the job for little more than two years.

It will be interesting to see what Thursday's events do for the confidence of federal and state premiers on the ALP ticket to make the hard and unpopular decisions.

What will be exercising minds in the National Party on this side of the Tasman, however, is the amazing speed with which Rudd went - to borrow a phrase - from hero to zero.

Ironically, Rudd's rapid demise should give New Zealand Labour considerable heart. Key's poll ratings as preferred Prime Minister might still be at stratospheric levels - and, as a consequence, National's are not far behind. But so were Rudd's until the start of this year.

That Rudd's ratings along with those of his party have since gone down the gurgler might suggest Key - so far impervious to Labour's largely ham-fisted attempts to discredit him - is not necessarily invincible.

Unfortunately for Labour, there is a lot more that separates Rudd and Key than there are similarities.

Certainly, there are questionmarks as to what either really stands for. However, whereas Rudd promised policies based on high-minded principle, Key has based National's policy development on what is going to work, as well as straight-out party ideology.

For example, Rudd described fixing climate-change as "the greatest moral challenge" facing mankind. He then promptly postponed the introduction of an emissions trading scheme as being in the too-hard basket - a decision which confirmed perceptions that he was only interested in staying in power.

While similarly claiming the moral high ground on Japanese whaling, he also prevaricated on a promise to take that nation to the International Court of Justice.

In contrast, Key promised and delivered a watered-down version of Labour's emissions trading scheme. National could have won substantial brownie-points from the business and farmer lobbies had it got rid of the scheme altogether.

One reason National has not done so is because senior ministers are conscious that all-out pragmatism runs the risk of falling into the same trap as Rudd and National needs to exhibit some consistency.

When it comes to Japanese whaling, National opted to find a diplomatic solution which would have seen a limited return to commercial slaughter - a position which would have ended up saving more whales than Rudd's "principled" grandstanding.

The need for consistency will also influence the Government's final decisions on mining on the Conservation estate. While National will likely back away from the more contentious elements in Gerry Brownlee's stocktake of mineral resources, it will not make a complete retreat.

Mining is one issue where National made the mistake of leaving a political vacuum for opponents to fill - something Key learned from Helen Clark not to do. While successful political management is arguably easier for conservative-oriented administrations charged with defending the status quo, it may be easier for a conservative-oriented party to do this than a more radically-minded, left-leaning one. Rudd let dangerous vacuums develop on major issues, particularly on the question of the refugee boat-people.

One marked similarity between Key and Rudd is that both quickly rose up their respective parties' ranks while in Opposition. Both benefited from leadership vacuums which they ultimately filled. Rudd's problem is that he failed to build a power base on his way up. That proved extremely costly in recent weeks. Lacking a power base in a highly-factionalised party meant Rudd lacked for allies to defend him.

In terms of leadership style, the pair are polar opposites.While demanding of his ministers in terms of expecting results, Key is far more laid back and flexible, giving his ministers room to breathe and get on with the job as they see fit. At times, oversight from above has been too lax.

Rudd, on the other hand, has been constantly accused of being autocratic with many decisions not being made by the full Cabinet where issues could be fully explored for hidden fish hooks.

Instead, they have largely been made by a handful of ministers, which ironically included Rudd's replacement, Julia Gillard, and Treasurer Wayne Swann, who is now also Deputy Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister's office also played a dominating role, which alongside a failure to consult, bred resentment. That did not matter when things were going well and the ALP was doing well in the polls.

That was the case until Tony Abbot took over leadership of the Liberal Party in December last year. Abbot's rightist leanings were merely expected to reinforce the Opposition Liberal-National Party coalition's core vote rather than build on it.

Instead, Abbot has managed to turn the polls around to the point that some have registered significant margins over the ALP in recent months, ultimately leading to Rudd's downfall.

Abbot's elevation is testimony to the degree to which a new leader can shake up the political dynamic.

Phil Goff's struggle to gain traction would normally bring the kind of fate suffered by Rudd this week. However, Shane Jones' disgrace and David Cunliffe's unpopularity in the Labour caucus has marginalised two MPs who were always outside chances anyway. And it is too soon to consider anyone from the 20008 intake. Goff may not be able to breathe easy. But Key can.