KEY POINTS:
Voters are volatile and those sitting on the fence will be looking at personality - not policy - between now and the election on November 8, says a senior lecturer in political studies.
University of Auckland's Dr Joe Atkinson said marginal voters, who could sway the outcome of the election, engage on character, personality and trust not issues.
"Although having said that, if Clark and Key are put up against one another in a debate and it seems clear that Clark is comprehensively more competent than Key and winning the argument over policy issues, that clearly would be seen as a point in her favour," Dr Atkinson said.
He said as a relatively inexperienced politician, John Key has come across as a "nice guy" but that will not win him an election against an experienced Helen Clark.
"He has to take some stances that are different from Labour and defend them and we still don't know if he's capable of doing that," Dr Atkinson said.
He said the leaks coming out from National have been used by Labour to suggest there are disaffected National Party members.
"We don't know if that's correct but it is disconcerting for National."
He said if National was planning to release its policy at the last moment, giving Labour little time to criticise it, then the leaks are a problem.
Dr Atkinson said the Owen Glenn donation saga has not rubbed off negatively on the government, according to the polls.
But New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has been affected and that could change things when the next government is formed.
"For a very long time he's been running a populist line that the elite are corrupt and he's the only honest fighter outside the ring shooting bombs inside and now the Glenn thing exposes him as someone who was playing the same games all along," Dr Atkinson said.
He said the Glenn saga complicates things for Labour and National because their strategic choices after the election will be limited if New Zealand First is not an option.