NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather forecasts

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
    • The Great NZ Road Trip
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
    • Cooking the Books
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

Brian Fallow: Reviving the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·NZ Herald·
5 Oct, 2017 05:00 PM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

The hikoi from the anti-TPP protest in Auckland arriving at Te Tii Marae, Waitangi on 5 February 2016. Photo / Michael Craig

The hikoi from the anti-TPP protest in Auckland arriving at Te Tii Marae, Waitangi on 5 February 2016. Photo / Michael Craig

Brian Fallow
Opinion by Brian Fallow
Brian Fallow is a former economics editor of The New Zealand Herald
Learn more

Alan Bollard thinks it is a 50:50 question whether leaders at next month's Apec summit will sign off on a Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement which excludes the United States - the TPP11 - or will conclude that they have to renegotiate it.

"It's a bit hard to predict which they are going to do. If they don't get something to sign, you would have to assume it is going to be on the back-burner," said Bollard - the former Reserve Bank governor and Treasury secretary who now heads the Apec secretariat - during a visit home this week.

Officials from the remaining 11 TPP countries - a subset of Apec's 21 Pacific Rim economies - have been working on a draft which freezes or suspends some of the provisions which were included at the United States' behest, in the hope that what remains can be agreed at the Apec summit in Da Nang, Vietnam.

But that already challenging timetable has been complicated by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's decision last week to call a snap election on October 22. Japan has been leading the push for a TPP11.

At this stage it is unclear who will represent New Zealand at the Apec summit: Bill English or Jacinda Ardern. Labour is critical of the TPP text as it stands, for not protecting the right for New Zealand to restrict purchases of existing residential properties to people who live here or are entitled to.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The text does, however, have a carveout of sorts attached to the national treatment provision of the investment chapter: "New Zealand reserves the right to adopt or maintain any taxation measure with respect to the sale, purchase or transfer of residential property." Australia's more populous states have such a tax on foreign investment in residential property, and in principle it could be set at a seriously discouraging level.

Bollard said he suspected there would be some changes to the original text and then it would be up to the Government, whoever that is, to decide whether that was enough for New Zealand to accept. "Would New Zealand hold back if everyone else was going? I can't see that happening."

Investment, including foreign investment, pouring into residential property and bidding up prices was not just an issue for Auckland, he said. Sydney, Melbourne, San Francisco, Vancouver and a number of Asian and Latin American cities have similar problems. "It is partly a tax issue. It is not just New Zealand; it is undertaxed in many parts of the world.

"But if you can't deal with it that way, you can get into whether macro-prudential policy can slow things down. Singapore and Hong Kong have tried a lot of different ways of slowing the housing market, partly successful, partly not." Apec, while it is often dismissed as a talking shop, provides a forum where economies can compare notes on such common challenges.

Trade remains a central preoccupation for Apec, whose members account for more than half of global GDP.

Discover more

Retail

Secrets of mystery shoppers revealed

05 Oct 06:19 PM
Airlines

Would you fly with a robot pilot?

05 Oct 06:44 PM
Companies

US economic data underpin stock rally

05 Oct 07:07 PM
Currency

Kiwi drops to four-month low

05 Oct 07:46 PM

But the focus is shifting, Bollard says, from barriers to merchandise trade, at and behind the border, to issues arising from the digital economy.

"For 20 years we have been arguing about obstacles to merchandise trade. Now a lot of what we are arguing about is about data movements, electronic commerce and platforms, and the complex questions they bring up about cyber-security, hacking and data privacy."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

There was an emerging battle between two acronyms - "BAT" and "FAG" - about who will set the standards for platforms, he said.

BAT is short for the Chinese digital giants Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent, while FAG stands for Facebook, Amazon and Google. While the latter may be more familiar, the former are especially strong in mobile applications.

Apec's concern in what are very arcane, technical disagreements over standards, is to avoid winner-takes-all outcomes.

It wants inter-connected, open systems which will allow small businesses around the Asia-Pacific region to exploit the opportunities the technology provides for cross-border commerce.

More broadly, the region is having to come to grips with the passing of a model in which export-oriented industrialisation and urbanisation delivered economic growth rates strong enough for governments to ignore the social and environmental scar tissue involved, Bollard said.

But now they have to confront trends such as ageing populations - with the risk of countries getting old before they get rich - rising environmental concerns among burgeoning middle classes, industrial automation hollowing out manufacturing employment, and widening income inequality.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The elastic term "globalisation" serves as a convenient lightning rod for much of that concern.

At a time when international co-operation and multilateral institutions have never been more needed, an ebb tide is running in popular support for them. The attitudes behind Brexit and America First are not confined to Britain and the United States.

Bollard points to a Pew research survey of people in developed countries which asked if trade destroyed jobs. Some 19 per cent said yes, including an arresting 50 per cent in the US.

Perceptions of the extent of immigrant numbers and import penetration were also wildly at odds with the facts, the survey found.

The upshot is a Trump Administration which has pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Its trans-Atlantic counterpart, TTIP, is going nowhere and the Nafta trade pact with Canada and Mexico is being renegotiated.

Fears of a trade war breaking out between the US and China, which were prompted by Donald Trump's rhetoric as a candidate and some of the appointments he has made, have so far proven unfounded.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

But Bollard points out that some reviews the President has ordered during his first 100 days, into bilateral trade deficits, steel and aluminium, and intellectual property, have yet to report back.

And the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer harbours deep concerns about trade dispute resolution mechanisms and the enforcement of trade agreements.

All of which leaves an organisation like Apec struggling with the problem of how to do multilateralism when the indispensable power has gone AWOL.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Economy

Employment

'Like having our throats cut': Couple called into meeting, both told their jobs were gone

11 May 02:32 AM
Premium
Opinion

Liam Dann: In a world of grim news, here are five economic bright spots

10 May 05:00 PM
Premium
Business|markets

Allbirds predicts turnaround - finally - if lucky break on tariffs holds true

09 May 12:23 AM

One tiny baby’s fight to survive

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

'Like having our throats cut': Couple called into meeting, both told their jobs were gone

'Like having our throats cut': Couple called into meeting, both told their jobs were gone

11 May 02:32 AM

Now Didi van Heerden has been awarded $207,000 from the company and its director.

Premium
Liam Dann: In a world of grim news, here are five economic bright spots

Liam Dann: In a world of grim news, here are five economic bright spots

10 May 05:00 PM
Premium
Allbirds predicts turnaround - finally - if lucky break on tariffs holds true

Allbirds predicts turnaround - finally - if lucky break on tariffs holds true

09 May 12:23 AM
Premium
‘Rip-off’: App developer and Consumer say fees will stifle open banking

‘Rip-off’: App developer and Consumer say fees will stifle open banking

08 May 11:00 PM
Connected workers are safer workers 
sponsored

Connected workers are safer workers 

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP