Average Auckland house prices are tipped to pass $1 million this month .
CoreLogic analyst Nick Goodall said it was "safe to assume" the average residential property value in the Auckland urban area would pass $1 million when the August figures are released by Quotable Value (QV) on September 6 - months earlier than expected.
"It was $975,000 in June and $992,000 in July, so I think it's safe to assume it will be more than $1 million in August," he said.
He said the annual growth rate in Auckland prices had slowed from a peak of 24 per cent late last year to 16 per cent in the year to July, but was unlikely to have slowed dramatically in August.
Given average values of $874,851 in August last year, the growth rate would need to slow to below 14.3 per cent to hold this month's average below $1 million.
Goodall said the growth rate was slowing in the wake of Reserve Bank requirements for investors to have deposits of at least 40 per cent of the value of properties bought after this Thursday, September 1. But the market was slowing only gradually.
"The Reserve Bank said they expected the latest round of investor restrictions to slow the rate of growth by 2 to 5 per cent," he said.
"Given that it's 16 per cent now, that implies the growth rate slowing to between 11 and 14 per cent. So it's still growing, it's just that the rate of growth is slowing down.
"Immigration, even though it's coming down, is still strong; supply is obviously not a quick fix; and interest rates are still low and projected to continue to be low for the foreseeable future. So even with further restrictions it's not going to completely curtail the market."
QV spokeswoman Andrea Rush told the Herald's Focus programme on July 5 that Auckland average prices were not expected to surpass $1 million until next year.
"The average value in Auckland now is $975,000 across the whole region. If the rate of growth increases as it is at the moment, we will have an average value of $1 million by 2017," she said then.
Goodall said the $1 million average was based on CoreLogic's monthly revaluations of all residential properties across Auckland, and was different from the average of recent sales which was affected by the kinds of properties being sold each month.
CoreLogic's average of all Auckland residential properties actually sold in the June quarter was only $884,337, and half of all sales in that quarter were below $767,000 (the median price).
Sales data also points to a more steeply slowing market, with the annual growth in average sale prices dropping from 23 per cent late last year to just 5.2 per cent in the latest June quarter, while growth in median prices slowed from 23 per cent to 6.7 per cent.
But Goodall said the lower sales figures reflected more apartments and properties in below-average parts of Auckland coming on to the market.
"What we do tend to see is that when growth is quite strong, the lower part of the market tends to do quite well, so areas like Manukau and Waitakere are tending to be doing well," he said.
"The sale price is only reflecting what properties happen to be selling at the time. The reason we prefer to use the total value of all properties is because it measures all the properties in the region."
Auckland residential properties - the figures
Value ($) and growth in past year (%)
Median - sales
June quarter 2015 $719,000 + 20.4%
Sept quarter 2015 $737,000 + 23.0%
Dec quarter 2015 $745,000 + 15.7%
Mar quarter 2016 $750,000 + 10.3%
June quarter 2016 $767,000 + 6.7%
Average - sales
June quarter 2015 $840,493 + 20.9%
Sept quarter 2015 $861,784 + 23.0%
Dec quarter 2015 $876,641 + 15.8%
Mar quarter 2016 $992,292 + 10.7%
June quarter 2016 $884,337 + 5.2%
Average - all property values
June 2015 $840,165 + 17.0%
July 2015 $855,672 + 18.8%
Aug 2015 $874,851 + 20.4%
Sept 2015 $896,676 + 22.6%
Oct 2015 $918,153 + 24.4%
Nov 2015 $931,807 + 24.4%
Dec 2015 $933,264 + 22.5%
Jan 2016 $928,921 + 19.8%
Feb 2016 $925,656 + 17.8%
Mar 2016 $931,061 + 16.9%
Apr 2016 $942,760 + 16.5%
May 2016 $955,793 + 15.4%
June 2016 $975,087 + 16.1%
July 2016 $992,207 + 16.0%
Aug 2016 Due Sept 6