A successful, Psa-tolerant cultivar Gold3 - developed by Zespri - has come to the rescue but many growers are still feeling the after-effects of Psa because of the time it takes to switch over.
Growers have enjoyed a strong year so far and in general prices have been favourable, supported in part by a heavy frost last year in New Zealand's biggest Southern Hemisphere competitor, Chile.
Zespri's net profit after tax came to $17.2 million in the year to March, up 128 per cent from $7.6 million a year earlier, despite Psa stripping out 55 per cent of gold volumes. As it turned out, reduced volumes helped support prices, taking grower returns to near record levels.
He said production of the more traditional "green" kiwifruit had reached a plateau at about 70 million trays as more growers turned to gold.
"We had a good year this year and are looking forward to quite strong growth in the gold category, moving through to around 30 million trays next year," he said.
"We will have fully recovered from Psa by then, and so yes on the back of strong returns and a recovery in the gold business from Psa and the recovery in land values, there is a strong sense of optimism," Jager said.
Gold is yielding around $9.30 a tray compared with $5.30 a tray for green, reflecting the relative undersupply of gold fruit. Jager expects prices to even out and gold to return to about $6 per tray once the supply recovers.
Southern Hemisphere rival Chile produces 200,000 tonnes a year compared with 350,000 tonnes here. Japan, South Korea and France are big producers, while Italy is the world's biggest exporter.
China is the world's biggest kiwifruit producer but it consumes its own production, which amounts to 1.4 million tonnes a year.
Most of the world's kiwifruit is grown in the Northern Hemisphere, so New Zealand's exports come into their own during the northern off-season.
Zespri has already been enjoying strong growth in China. Last year it sold 9 million trays to the People's Republic - less than might have been due to the gold shortage.
As gold volumes recover, Zespri is looking at 13 million trays in China and about 20 million trays next year.
"I suspect that it will grow at 5 million trays a year for the next 3 or 4 years, so that is very positive for us," he said.
Favourable market conditions generally flow through into Zespri's returns and, once again, the recovery from Psa is evident.
"At a corporate level we have had a very good year and that generally flows well into Zespri's corporate returns," Jager said.
The Psa virus first hit in November 2010. The 2011 and 2012 years were devastating, particularly in the Bay of Plenty, which is responsible for about 80 per cent of the crop, but Jager says the industry is still smarting.
"The financial overhang will last for a number of years as growers re-graft to other varieties," Jager said.
"It has cost growers a lot of money and they have been without cashflow for a number of years," he said. "Growers have taken on debt to get through all of that, so there is a bit of hard work to go yet."
