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Home / Business / Economy / Official Cash Rate

Liam Dann: Big players take a hit from Australia effect

NZ Herald
14 Oct, 2011 04:30 PM4 mins to read

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Any downturn in the Australian economy will have a negative impact on New Zealand's smaller manufacturers and exporters that rely on Australia for much of their income. File photo / Brett Phibbs

Any downturn in the Australian economy will have a negative impact on New Zealand's smaller manufacturers and exporters that rely on Australia for much of their income. File photo / Brett Phibbs

Never mind the big game on Sunday, Australia is already giving this country plenty of cause for concern.

Big earnings downgrades by NZX-listed companies Fletcher Building, Methven and Cavalier have all been linked to a slump in the Australian economy.

It is a slowdown in relative terms of course. Australia remains one of the most buoyant economies in the world.

New Zealand's proximity to the lucky country has been something of a lifesaver for us over the past few years.

But for the last six weeks or so the weakness of its domestic economy - coupled with worry that a Chinese slowdown might curtail returns from the great mining boom - has been putting a dampener on activity across the Tasman.

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The earnings downgrades this week were a highly visible reminder of the "Australia effect" but what is more worrying is that they are just the tip of the iceberg for the New Zealand economy.

The impact of Fletcher Building was immediate and dramatic. Its share price suffered its biggest one-day drop in 14 years, shedding 12 per cent as investors panicked.

Far less obvious is the impact a less vibrant Australian economy will have on hundreds of smaller local businesses.

For starters the impact on a big player like Fletcher can't be viewed in isolation. If it is required to tighten its belt then that will flow through to numerous suppliers and contractors that count Fletcher as one of their most important customers.

But then there are the many other smaller manufacturers and exporters that rely on Australia for much of their income. As private companies and small employers these businesses don't tend to make big public statements about their outlook. Any negative impact they feel is best captured by confidence surveys and industry association reports.

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The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) for the September suggested momentum for local manufacturers was already flagging, with 12 per cent reporting they had had a worse quarter than the one before. That compares with just 2 per cent reporting the same in the June quarter survey.

This week the BNZ's Performance of Manufacturing Index also showed growth in the sector continuing to weaken.

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Meanwhile across the Tasman, a report by the business association Australian Industry Group highlights the risks to Australia from falling Asian growth levels and the flow-on from the woes of America and Europe.

The report notes that the IMF has downgraded Australian GDP growth expectations to 1.8 per cent for 2011 and 3.3 per cent for 2012 - down from earlier forecasts of 3 and 3.5 per cent.

The group's own index for Performance of Manufacturing showed conditions weakening in September.

The AI Group report also notes that the downturn in the Australian construction continued to falter through September - something Fletcher shareholders hardly need reminding of.

The AI Group's seasonally adjusted Performance of Construction Index showed its most subdued reading since February 2009.

It is important to remember that Australia isn't falling off a cliff. But the point is that Australia is so important to New Zealand's economy that even a relatively subtle negative shift has the power to take the wind out of our sales. And let's face it there wasn't a lot of wind in them to start with.

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Whether this downturn flows through to other important drivers of our local economy - like tourist numbers - remains to be seen but if sentiment in Sydney and Melbourne is grim then there is every chance it could. New Zealanders are often quick to look past the closer economic relationship with Australia, which remains by far our largest trading partner.

By value our exports to Australia were worth $10.3 billion in the year to June. That's almost equal to the combined value of our two next biggest exports markets - China and the United States .

In fact, the global financial crisis would have been a lot more worrying for us over the past three years without our wealthy neighbours with their impressive savings regime and solid banking system.

So while we won't be shouting "Aussie, Aussie, Aussie" this weekend there are plenty of reasons to be quietly barracking for a great Aussie comeback in the months ahead.

twitter.com/liamdann

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