Alan Cocker: Future prospects - NZ out in front

Media theory is a topic which is bound to draw the ire of the belt-and-braces editor and shrill denunciation from talk-back hosts but sometimes it can provide some useful tools for analysing our media.

Take, for example, framing theory. This argues that journalists use "frames" when writing their news stories to give them a context familiar to the audience. News comes at us as a series of episodes which need to be linked to an ongoing theme to give them coherence.

A favourite frame now used by journalists covering election campaigns is the "horse race frame", the presentation of an election campaign as an unfolding drama about which political leader is ahead in the polls.

The horse race frame is arguably the one used when journalists compare the economic health of Australia and New Zealand.

It is normally a dismal story for New Zealanders as the Aussie nag draws ever further ahead and the vet's injection required for our horse to catch up becomes ever more extreme.

The coverage of the first report of the Don Brash-chaired 2025 Taskforce, the date by which the taskforce hopes we will have closed the economic gap with Australia, had all the elements of the horse race. It even came with a handy graph which showed the Aussies increasing their lead, particularly and ironically after New Zealand had a harsh dose of economic medicine in the decade after 1984 - medicine which the members of the economic taskforce, some of whom led the economic policy approach of that period, felt had not been strong enough.

However, there are other frames that journalists might use in covering this issue. Another popular one for journalists is the "wrongdoing exposed" frame.

For example, individuals, politicians or bureaucrats are wrongfully or wastefully spending taxpayers' money.

This taskforce is the result of political bargaining; it has been demanded of the Government by the Act Party as part of the coalition agreement and is budgeted to cost taxpayers $477,000 up to June 2012.

This seems a lot of money for yearly reports, the first of which left the Prime Minister "unimpressed".

However, perhaps the journalists are just presenting the wrong horse as winning the race.

The taskforce appears to take a very narrow "economic growth" focus. Some of the evidence for Australia's lead seemed to be odd. Australians, we are told, consume more alcohol. This is normally construed as a negative.

We also own fewer cars and have smaller houses and so we are perhaps more environmentally responsible.

Australians also drink more fruit juice, an odd statistic for the taskforce to put in front of us, as Australia is generally hotter. However, these snapshots of difference might reflect circumstances under which the taskforce is able to meet and collate its evidence.

All five members were only able to meet as a group for the first time two months ago so there has been a time constraint on greater deliberation and gathering supportive argument.

Our transtasman neighbours undoubtedly have a need for more fruit juice and, vitally, water. Australia may well be "the lucky country" but not when it comes to water. Their Bureau of Meteorology tells us that it is the driest inhabited continent with one of the most variable rainfall climates in the world.

Normally it will have about three good years of rainfall and three bad ones in a 10-year period. The Australian government research entity CSIRO has projected increases in Australian temperatures of between 1C and 6C by 2070 and this would lead to greater evaporation and water stress. As perhaps a foretaste of things to come, in 2006 Australia suffered from its worst drought in years.

This is not the only threat to the Australian way of life and economy. Australia also suffers from salinity of its agricultural soils brought about by European farming methods. By 2050 this is expected to affect 17 million hectares of Australian agricultural land with an enormous potential loss of production.

Because of the harshness of their interior the majority of Australians cling to the coastal fringe of their island continent. According to a report to the Australian Parliament at the beginning of November, rising sea levels as a result of global warming posed a threat to 750,000 Australian homes. That equates to more than half of New Zealand's total housing stock. There is another frame used by journalists, called the "reality check frame", which might in this case be the more appropriate frame.

It is used by journalists with issues that demand a closer look at the veracity of statements made or information given.

A reality check of our future compared with that of Australia may indeed conclude that in terms of a changing global climate and future sustainability, New Zealand is out in front by more than a nose.

Dr Alan Cocker is head of the School of Communication Studies at AUT University.