Justice and Law are too often only marginally related. So it seems to be with John Banks and his anonymous mayoral campaign donations. It's not a good look but National had this outcome well covered from the beginning - rapidly lowering the required ethical standards bar for ministers from 'highest' in 2008 to just 'legal' in 2012. Phil Heatley resigned as a minister in 2010 for claiming $70 worth of wine as a ministerial dinner. The Prime Minister said that Heatley had been 'untidy and careless' with his expense claims. How times change.
And stay the same. As John Armstrong points out, while Key needs to distance himself from Banks there are stronger motivations at work: 'as Helen Clark did with Winston Peters, Key needs Banks' parliamentary vote' - see: Toothless law Act leader's savior. The local electoral law should be changed pronto, but even doing that will be too much of an admission of guilt says Armstrong.
Labour are making lots of noise - see Andrea Vance's Labour not satisfied as police close Banks case - but they and Winston Peters have already done their bit to eliminate public expectations that ethics will trump political necessity. Banks and Act's credibility will be the only serious casualties - or would be if there was any credibility left. Any doubt that Act is a 'dead party walking' it is now gone, and the only winners will be the potential replacement coalition partners: Colin Craig's Conservative Party and, yes, Winston Peters.
It's curious that on issues where MPs are free to speak their mind there is so much coyness about how they will vote. Isaac Davison's Same sex marriage has wide support makes the best job of assessing what stated support there is for Louisa Wall's bill on marriage equality. Patrick Gower thinks it will pass, but it may be close. Rather than exercising their own 'conscience' Gower says that many National MPs will 'follow the leader', and so John Key's vote could be the deciding factor - see: Key will decide if same-sex marriage goes ahead. There are some, of course, only too willing to share their views, including the Conservative Party leader - see: Colin Craig: Gay isn't 'normal'. While his views are well within the minority, his target is only the 4-5% needed to enter parliament in 2014, and this Labour MP's bill may actually provide the parliamentary coalition partner National desperately needs after that election.
For more on how MPs are avoiding giving an answer, watch TV3's What MPs think of gay marriage - extended footage, and see Emma Hart's explanation of MP responses: The Weasel Translator. But the best analysis of how MPs will vote comes in Peter Wilson's No certainty around gay marriage bill.