"This is where the rubber hits the road," regional council senior transport planner Joe Metcalfe said on the anticipated public reaction.
Where BayHopper services were already at capacity, the council would put on extra buses to carry the students. "We want to get as many students on to the public network as possible."
Mr Metcalfe said it was agreed in 2013 that by mid-2018 the council would optimise services by folding most SchoolHopper services into BayHopper.
The regional council will seek public feedback via an online website and a series of open days this month, with feedback going to the June meeting. The lengthy process of calling tenders for the new BayHopper and SchoolHopper services meant that the changes would not take effect until July, 2018.
Mr Metcalfe said the bus services could not be all things to all people and it was always about finding compromises.
Bus services to the city's western suburbs would go every 20 minutes instead of every 30 minutes, with services timed to meet at Brookfield to enable transfers to reach more destinations. Matua would get a direct service into the CBD.
A new city loop service would operate every 15 minutes from the CBD out to the Mount and Bayfair and along Cameron Rd to Greerton.
"This is a huge improvement in the level of service."
A new cross-town connector would run every 30 minutes between Bayfair, Welcome Bay, the polytechnic, Greerton and Tauranga Crossing at Tauriko. Papamoa students would be able to take a connector from Bayfair to the polytechnic via SH29, saving 15 to 20 minutes.
Mr Metcalfe said the new route would go through the middle of Papamoa allowing more coverage and a lot less travel time. There would be a bus every 15 minutes in each direction between Bayfair and Papamoa Plaza, with a Papamoa peak-time express service every 30 minutes from The Boulevard and Papamoa Plaza direct to Bayfair and the CBD.
Extensive changes to the southern suburbs included Welcome Bay's route extending to Waikite Rd and operating every 20 minutes instead of every 30 minutes. It would connect to the cross-town connector at Hairini interchange.
Services along Cameron Rd would peak at every four and a-half minutes.
Mr Metcalfe said changes to the SchoolHopper service meant a number of students would not be better off, but it was a better solution for a wider range of students. More and more students were already using the BayHopper service rather than the school buses.
He said the schools were largely happy with the changes. Shifting to public buses took responsibility away from the schools. The $1.5 million saved would be put back into the BayHopper service.
Regional councillor Stuart Crosby said each student was currently being subsidised by an average of $700 a year, with some student subsidies reaching $2000 a year.
"The maths can get quite scary, and someone has to pay for it."
A review of bus fares takes place later this year.
Patronage and costs from changes for Year One
Estimated patronage: 2.4 million
Estimated fares: $3.9 million
Estimated operating costs: $15 million
Estimated cost to regional council: $5.4 million