After just three seasons, the Senior rugby champions Ngamatapouri will debut in Premier rugby tomorrow.
Nine teams. Twenty weekends. One champion.
Those statistics are the only guarantees when a fresh-looking Tasman Tanning Premier club rugby championship season kicks off early tomorrow as Wanganui Car Centre Kaierau will be the first side to make the trek up into Taranaki beehive country to meet the new lads in Honey Settler's Ngamatapouri.
The presence of the undefeated 2016 Senior champions is expected to add somewhat more urgency to the first round of games from March to mid-May, as after two seasons as an eight-team competition, Ngamatapouri's ascension makes the prospect of any club just scraping into fourth spot through some key victories in July's back end of the round robin a mathematical improbability.
And the newcomers have made it clear that they are not here to just make up the numbers, where despite the loss of two of their star representative players, coach Richard Carston said they have shored up the ranks, which includes his management team.
Charles 'Spock' Osborne is being joined by his former All Black nephew Glen Osborne as officially assistant coaches under Carston, who said he would have been happy for them to take the lead, although they requested he stay on in the main role.
"They're just to help us going up to another level.
"Me being old-school, they knew the new stuff."
First issue to confront was the loss of imports and Steelform Wanganui standouts Malakai Volau and Michael Nabuliwaqa, who are domiciled at home in Fiji after an administrative kerfuffle.
"They had to go back after the finals last year, they had trouble getting visas to come back, but they're still trying," said Carston.
"That's what happens when you play the system - they were warned."
However, their brethren flyer Samu Kubunavanua is ready to go, as is Bryn Hudson in the loose forwards to cover the loss of Volau, while there will be both experience and muscle from Brad Newland and brother Clint - the former Maori All Black and Highlander prop.
"We just take it every game as it is," said Carston.
"We're definitely there to play, I said to my boys, 'this is only our third season'.
"We always said when we won the Seniors, we'll go up. All the boys agreed to that.
"I expect us to be in that Top 4, that's what I've been telling them."
Ngamatapouri were known to treat visiting Senior teams with some good hospitality at their hall, just down the road from the field they carved out in the Waitotara Valley, and Kaierau coach Denis Edwards is hoping for more of the same after the big drive up New Zealand's longest no-exit road.
"Let's hope there's a good aftermatch," he said.
"Ngamat's being the unknown - last year was last year with them."
Narrowly missing the 2016 semifinals, although they went on to claim the consolation trophy in their 125th season, Kaierau are possibly an even younger team than last year, as they must rebuild their first-five combination after the departure of veteran Areta Lama to Australia, as well as standout Kameli Kuruyabaki and utility player Hoani Pahl-Long.
"Really, it's nearly the same team, except for those three, and they were an important three," Edwards said.
"Ace [Malo] is still hanging on there and will be my captain.
"No gains from other clubs, but no losses to other clubs."
Malo's fellow co-captain Fiatau Faalili is playing in the loose forwards this season but unavailable tomorrow.
Among the newcomers are hooker Sam Dawson from Wellington's Hutt Old Boys, while Edwards said the arrival of young loose forward and Under 18 rep player Dylan Bowater from last year's successful Whanganui High School 1st XV is "certainly is a good pick up".
Representative front rower Jack Yarrall will also return, despite his father Andy taking over coaching Harvey Round Motors Ratana after Cornel Mason joined the referee ranks.
Kaierau finished off preseason on a high after they hammered traditional rivals Black Bull Liquor Pirates last Saturday, but given their usual struggles with early season fitness, Edwards was reading little into Pirates effort.
"In three to four weeks it will be a different Pirates team, they're bringing 4-5 Fijian guys over."
In the other matches, defending champions Waverley Harvesting Border are also in rebuilding mode after the departure of several members of their championship winning team when they host Ratana at home.
PGG Wrightson/Balance Taihape will be keen to test their preseason work against Memorial Park neighbours Utiku Old Boys in the always-anticipated derby game, while fellow Spriggens Park tenants Dave Hoskin Carriers Marist and Pirates will also clash for local bragging rights.
The initial 11-round Senior competition will also kick off this weekend, with the plan to split into a six-team championship grade and five-team consolation group come June.
After Ngamatapouri's departure, the new ownership of the Stihl Shop Wanganui Challenge Shield was decided by random draw and ironically it was former owners Kelso Hunterville who pulled the card, which annoyed Carston who thought it would be better for the grade if one of the underdog squads received the rare chance to hold the shield, if only for a week.
"We thought we would give it to a middle-of-the-road senior team to defend. Like Counties.
"We took it off [Hunterville], they held it for eight years."