Whanganui weather: Blue skies this week; above-average temperatures until March

It could reach 28C in Whanganui on Wednesday. Photo / Bevan Conley

Whanganui will have blue skies and warm conditions this week, with Wednesday set to be 5C hotter than normal for this time of year.

MetService meteorologist Ngaire Wotherspoon said a broad ridge of high pressure would stick around for the next few days.

“You’re in for some pretty settled weather and there won’t be any decent winds.

“There might be a few showers inland but I doubt they’ll get to the city. There could be some evening cloud around but that will clear up in the mornings.”

Wotherspoon said that pattern would continue until at least Friday.

“Whanganui is looking at mid to late 20s for the whole week.

“There’ll be a high of 26C today and 25C [tomorrow]. On Wednesday, it could get up to 28C, which is a good 5C or 6C above the average.

“From there, it looks to be staying at around 26C and 27C for the rest of the week.”

Overnight temperatures would also be fairly warm, she said.

“You’re looking at the mid to late teens overnight but it shouldn’t be too muggy.

“The story for now is clear skies ahead.”

Niwa (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) meteorologist Ben Noll said the summer season had got off to a hot start and that was expected to continue.

“There is a very high chance of above-average temperatures for the three-month [January to March] period as a whole,” Noll said.

“One of the driving factors behind that extra warmth has been warmer seas and some regional marine heatwave conditions, especially north of the North Island.”

Niwa's Ben Noll says a serious drought situation could be prevented by “moisture plumes streaking in” from the north and west. Photo / Bevan Conley

North-quarterly winds - “anything from north to west on the compass” - were expected to be dominant until March.

Predicting rainfall was more challenging and more variable, he said.

“Right now, you guys [in Whanganui] are experiencing quite a dry start to the year.

“Soil moisture levels are generally near to below normal across the [Manawatū-Whanganui] region. Certainly, for farmers, they may be starting to notice things drying out a bit.”

However, the New Zealand Drought Index is only at level one - abnormally dry conditions - in the region.

“The scale goes from dry to severe drought,” Noll said.

“It is at the lowest level but it does suggest a need to watch the situation should dryness continue.”

He said one factor that could prevent a serious drought was “moisture plumes streaking in” from the north and west.

Timings and exact details were still up in the air but one could track into the region in the second half of this month, Noll said.

“Once or twice a month there could be a humid flow of air bringing some beneficial rain.

“One thing that can’t be ruled out is seeing a bit of smoke and dust in our skies at some point.”

Mike Tweed is an assistant news director and multimedia journalist at the Whanganui Chronicle. Since starting in March 2020, he has dabbled in everything from sport to music. At present his focus is local government, primarily the Whanganui District Council.