Trends show how Whanganui could look in 10 years

Of the 66 territorial authorities across the country, Whanganui ranks 51st for household income. Photo / Bevan Conley

Whanganui is likely to become bigger, more diverse, and younger over the next decade.

The Whanganui District Council has completed an “environmental scan” which assesses 59 topics and lays out potential trends and influences in the district to inform its next 10-year plan.

The council is working to a high-growth scenario in which the district will increase by approximately 370 people and between 54-108 households per year over the next decade.

Whanganui’s ethnic diversity is also projected to change, with a 4 per cent annual average growth rate for Asian peoples, 2.5 per cent for Māori and 3.4 per cent for Pacific peoples.

The New Zealand European ethnic group is expected to grow more slowly, at 0.5 per cent.

With high growth, the district would have a population of 52,981 by 2034.

In 2022 it was 48,700.

The data was presented at a recent council strategy and policy committee by council research and policy advisor Tamsin Eggleton.

She said because of new census data next year and the uncertainty around central government reforms, the scan would need to be revised in 2024.

Deputy Mayor Helen Craig. Photo / Bevan Conley

Deputy Mayor Helen Craig said the scan had “quite a lot to digest”.

“This will be a really great tool and we probably need to keep it on our right hand as we are working through the Long-Term Plan [LTP] and our vision,” Craig said.

Some statistics were pretty sobering, she said.

“The biggest risk is we just keep on doing the same things.

“Could we make a major difference, for example, in our deprivation factor?”

According to the 2018 Census, 62.5 per cent of the Whanganui population lived in high-deprivation areas compared to 39.9 per cent for New Zealand, with 10.4 per cent in a low-deprivation area compared to 29.5 per cent nationally.

The number of individuals or families on the Ministry of Social Development’s housing register peaked in June this year, at 384.

In March 2018 the number was 72.

The Ministry of Health says Whanganui will have adequate schooling capacity until 2030.

Infometrics, the economic consultancy providing much of the data for the scan, predicts Whanganui’s under-15 population will grow faster than the national average at 0.5 per cent per year, and the 15- to 64-year bracket will grow slower than the national average at 0.3 per cent per year.

Mayor Andrew Tripe said the scan showed barriers, obstacles and issues to fix but “that’s life”.

“There are also massive opportunities ahead of us,” Tripe said.

“We have a runway from now until July 1 next year [the date for sign-off of the LTP] to develop something, using the information we’ve got, to paint a picture of what the best place to live on Earth is.

“I see Whanganui as being that place.”

Josh Chandulal-Mackay says the council should use the information to focus on cohesion, belonging and community. Photo / Bevan Conley

The district’s average household income in 2023 is $91,795, below the national average of $125,217.

Of the 66 territorial authorities across the country, Whanganui ranks 51st for household income.

However, Whanganui’s unemployment rate is currently 3.9 per cent - the lowest in 20 years.

Infometrics predicts growth of 120 to 310 jobs annually until 2027.

It says employment growth in the primary sector - including adjacent industries such as manufacturing - will “soften” because of productivity improvements and increased efficiencies, meaning a smaller labour force is required.

For Whanganui, that could impact the level of job growth at places like meat works and tanneries.

Councillor Josh Chandulal-Mackay said Whanganui came in at 54th out of 66 for life expectancy.

“In terms of the suicide rate, we have a ranking of two per 10,000 residents - 56th out of the 66 territorial authorities,” Chandulal-Mackay said.

“I would really like to hope that, using this information, we can have a concerted effort in our strategy to focus on cohesion, belonging and community in our next Long-Term Plan.”

A final version of the scan would be completed in the next few weeks before being sent out to agencies, organisations and businesses in the district, Eggleton said.

Mike Tweed is an assistant news director and multimedia journalist at the Whanganui Chronicle. Since starting in March 2020, he has dabbled in everything from sport to music. At present his focus is local government, primarily the Whanganui District Council.