Taylor Hawkins, left, with Foo Fighters lead singer Dave Grohl. Photo / File.
OPINION:
One Christmas (a number of years ago) I was given a satirical book entitled 'Is it just me or is everything sh*t?'. The book covered a great deal of real and potential issues facing the world and evaluated potential future impacts and outcomes. The book, being written in the mid-2000s, contemplated minor issues right through to apocalyptic outcomes like irreversible climate change.
Unfortunately, the book has fallen victim to one of Mrs Bell's world-renowned spring cleans but I went looking for that book on the weekend anyway, because the closing noose of Covid-19's OMiGod variant has started to feel uncomfortably close. To use the now very common 'virologist' parlance, the most likely vector of infection for our family is the kids. The young Bells attend two different schools. On the one hand we have one school which communicates very well (if a little bit too cheerily) about case numbers and impact on their teaching staff. The other school doesn't communicate at all, which I find quite incredible.
So, an encounter with a descendant of the stealthy escapee from the Wuhan Institute of Virology is probably close. And when a risk starts to crystallise, you need to prepare yourself by understanding it (the consequences and likelihood) and looking at how to deal with it (controls). So here are my thoughts on a couple of big items from last Saturday afternoon:
Covid-19
Quite apart from the almost-unrelenting narrative of fear that has permeated society on the basis of this microbe, this risk appears potentially manageable for most individuals. Evidently, the consequences of infection vary from person to person, so it's best to think about it in terms of your own situation. I have a congenital lung condition, so the controls I apply are in prevention - but the consequences are lower with Omicron, as it appears less virulent. Unfortunately, so well-designed is this microbe that infection likelihood is high. I arrived at an overall rating of low residual risk here, and that it is possibly better to just get it over with (in spite of what modellers and microbiologists might say in efforts to maintain their media relevance).
But if you have been reading these columns recently you know that the real risk is the medium- and long-term impacts; in particular, responding to the ongoing regulatory responses (particularly for business). I still think seven days is too long and I am unsure as to why we are not aligned with the CDC guidelines of five days.
Ukraine
If the stakes weren't so high, this would be a great study into why those with short man syndrome enjoy power trips and exerting their will on situations. The risks associated with this conflict are many and some already impact us via current fuel prices, and some will have further bearing on future food prices (as Ukraine happens to be one of the world's biggest producers of grain). There is some comfort in our isolation but, unfortunately, there is nothing you or I can do to control escalation of this situation; however the likelihood of major negative outcomes must surely be low. But when you have Sting digging up the most morose song off his 1985 Dream of the Blue Turtles album, there are clear signs that the world is worried. For business, the Ukraine conflict resolution could not come quick enough because of its impact on production costs and the cost of imports. But I am actually more worried about the goings-on in the Solomon Islands.
For each of these matters, it's good to have other things in your life and things to look forward to – like your favourite band touring later in the year and the ticket confirmation printed next to my computer.
After working through these two big risks, I was about to think about my feelings about climate change when Mrs Bell asked me if I had heard about what had happened to Taylor Hawkins (the drummer of my favourite band, the Foo Fighters). Hawkins passed away at age 50, Saturday afternoon NZ time. This brought to an end the prospect of their October tour and concerts (which were a bit of an antidote for the above items).
So, in that came the biggest revelation: appreciate and make the most of every day – regardless of the risks.