Rob Rattenbury: Interesting election looms for Te Tai Hauāuru, Whanganui and Rangitīkei seats

Rob Rattenbury is predicting a tight contest in October's general election. Photo / Bevan Conley

OPINION

As I write this, we are about 12 weeks out from the 2023 General Election. Political parties and their candidates are starting to campaign around the country.

Most sitting electorate MPs are hoping to retain their seats; some are retiring. For them and their respective parties, it is time for the three-yearly performance appraisal review conducted by that unknown quantity – us, the people.

Did they do well enough to hold on to their seats? Did their party do enough to either stay in power or gain power? All will be reviewed before the end of 2023 no doubt.

Of course, under MMP the election night result is merely the first step in the process of finding out who will be in charge for the next three years. After that, the horse trading begins with minor parties if needed - 2020 was the first time in the history of MMP that a political party could govern alone. Even then, Labour fed out a couple of portfolios to the Green Party to keep them happy.

This far out it is impossible to call the election. I will pick a tight election though.

On the home front, Whanganui, Rangitīkei and Te Tai Hauāuru will all be interesting seats to watch.

All our candidates are worthy people who have put their hands up to represent us in Parliament. I admire people who have the courage of their convictions and the grit to campaign for something they believe in. That is, in my opinion, above party politics. Almost all who make it to Parliament do it with the best of intentions - to make New Zealand a better place to live for its people.

I suggest that in the local contests, the most interesting seat to watch will be the Māori seat of Te Tai Hauāuru, currently held by Labour MP and Speaker of the House Adrian Rurawhe. He has chosen to go on to the Labour list this election, leaving the seat vacant. Soraya Peke-Mason from Rātana will be Labour’s candidate in the election.

In 2020 Debbie Ngarewa-Packer of Te Pāti Māori fell short by only 1053 votes. She is standing again - a well-known candidate and a co-leader of Te Pāti Māori in Parliament.

What makes this election even more interesting is that Harete Hipango, a National List MP and well-known Whanganui identity, is contesting the seat for National. The added factor is she has the public backing of Dame Tariana Turia, the founder of the Māori Party. It will be an interesting contest to watch between three quality candidates.

Whanganui will be a battle between two local candidates, Steph Lewis of Labour, our sitting MP, and Carl Bates of National - both Whanganui-born, raised and educated. Lewis took Whanganui from Hipango in the 2020 election with a stunning 6821-vote majority after National had held the seat for five terms.

I believe the 2020 election result nationwide was an aberration, fuelled by gratitude for how Labour handled Covid-19. Those days are now long gone and seemingly forgotten by many. Therefore, Whanganui will be a very tight race between these two young candidates. The estimated 400,000 swing voters who nationally moved Left in 2020 will have moved again. These are the voters who actually decide who wins on election night, not necessarily who wins the Treasury benches. The vagaries of MMP can go either way.

Long-time Rangitīkei MP Ian McKelvie retires this year, leaving the field open to all comers. Local farmer Suze Redmayne, a long-time electorate secretary for McKelvie and his predecessor Simon Power, is National’s candidate. Redmayne is well-known and a very strong contender. National has held Rangitīkei forever, apart from when Social Credit’s Bruce Beetham held it for three terms from 1975 to 1984.

What makes this seat interesting is Andrew Hoggard standing for ACT. Hoggard is the ex-president of Federated Farmers and a Feilding farmer. He has resigned from the presidency to contest the general election. Labour’s candidate is former Palmerston North city councillor Zulfiqar Butt, a candidate with a background in environmental science and some experience in politics.

ACT is enjoying its time in the sun right now. Both Redmayne and Hoggard are well-known in their communities. Based on the precedence of many decades, with a blip in the ‘70s and ‘80s, I would pick Redmayne still. But with two very strong local candidates, who knows?

So it’s time to watch and listen to our candidates. Read their party manifestos, keep up with the news.

Both major parties are having a time of it lately. National leader Christopher Luxon is struggling to cut through with the public as a possible Prime Minister. Labour leader Chris Hipkins has had to deal with too many problem children of late and is getting light on experienced ministers, many of whom are carrying huge workloads.

Politics. By the time you read this who knows what the polls will be saying?