Rangitikei's population may plunge

Marton Photo/File

The population of Rangitikei could slump by 40 per cent to under 9000 in little more than a generation, according to Statistics New Zealand.

The projections have been released to Rangitikei District Council to help with its 30-year infrastructure strategy.

In the 2013 Census, Rangitikei had a resident population count of 14,016, though Statistics New Zealand said the "usually resident" count was likely to be 14,500.

But the projections put the district's population at 13,470 by 2021, dropping to 8820 by 2046. The projections were based on 2006 data and will be updated in February next year to reflect the latest Census.

The projections indicate in 2046 Marton would have just 3000 people, down from 4637 in 2001.

Broken down into age brackets, the district is expected to lose over half its residents aged 16-39, while it population aged over 85 is the only age bracket expected to rise (245 in 2011 to 820 in 2046). A report by senior policy analyst Denise Servante detailing the data was discussed at Rangitikei District Council's policy and planning committee last week.

Mayor Andy Watson said there were a number of activities to suggest the predictions might not eventuate. He said there were new houses being built in Ratana, the area was the fastest growing in terms of improving irrigation, and long-term forecast for red meat sales were strong. The predicted increased agricultural production of the region would help keep people and jobs.

Rangitikei MP Ian McKelvie and Labour candidate Deborah Russell both agreed the projections would be accurate if the situation remained same. But both said it could be reversed.

Mr McKelvie said increased agricultural production and a focus on tourism could create jobs.

Rangitikei Labour candidate Deborah Russell said people did want to live in small towns such as Rangitikei but they needed jobs. A collaboration between Government, council and other organisations was needed.