Independence riding a wave

The results of the vote on Scotland's independence should be known about 6pm tomorrow. Photo/Supplied

After a drawn-out campaign, Scottish voters will participate in a referendum later today to decide on whether they want to secede from their 307 year union with England and become an independent nation.

Until recently, it appeared certain Scotland would vote "no" to remain in the UK but the past few weeks has seen a dramatic increase in support of independence.

The increased support in favour of independence has resulted in a state of panic among the British political establishment with the two main party leaders, David Cameron and Ed Miliband, being heavily criticised for their complacency in idly anticipating a no vote.

A late flurry of campaigning was launched by the British political elite and a mixture of threats and enticements, such as an eleventh hour promise to provide increased devolution powers to Scotland should they reject independence, dangled in front of the Scottish voters.

Should Scotland elect to leave the UK, there would also be consequences south of the border. It is hard to see how Cameron could remain Prime Minister having "lost the Union" while Labour and the Liberal Democrats would be deprived of a considerable portion of their electoral support. Ironically, an independent Scotland could prove a positive boon to the Conservatives given they currently hold only one seat in Scotland.

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While the no campaign has argued an independent Scotland would carry less weight in the international arena, the yes campaign has pointed out that Scotland would be the same size or larger than 11 current members of the European Union (EU). In fact with a population of 5.2 million, Scotland would rank just below the median size of the world's nations.

Furthermore, Scotland enjoys a superior per capita gross domestic product to France and would rank among the top 35 exporting nations worldwide. Such economic facts added to its North Sea oil resources indicate the potential viability of an independent Scotland.

The pro-independence side has emphasised the benefits independence might bring, including increased representation in the European Union parliament in line with similar-sized countries such as Denmark and the opportunity to pursue independent policies, advantageous to Scotland, such as closer economic linkages with their neighbours in northern Europe.

However, what really ignited the pro-independence movement was the dismantling of the welfare state by former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and the adoption of similar policies by New Labour and the current Conservative administration.

It should be remembered that while tertiary education in England and Wales can be up to 9000 ($18,000) a year, it is free for Scottish students studying in Scotland, as are prescription drugs and home healthcare.

Cameron's Conservatives advocate welfare cuts, austerity and privatisation. They enthusiastically embrace what the Scots would call the mean values of the Tory heroine Thatcher, who summed up her thinking with the famous phrase: "There is no such thing as society."

The Scots most definitely believe there is a thing called society. The Scottish National Party, which controls the Scottish Government and supports independence, wants to get rid of nuclear weapons, raise the minimum wage in line with inflation and begin a sweeping extension of child care. It is also more favourable toward immigration and the European Union than the British Government.

"There is more of a communitarian viewpoint in Scotland that sees the value of coming together to provide public services, to acknowledge the strength of community in Scotland," Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's deputy first minister told the New York Times.

As one of the top 20 wealthiest nations in the world, Scotland will be a great place to do business for all companies after independence, including retailers.

Justin Frewen is a Wanganui-based United Nations consultant, who has served the UN on humanitarian missions for almost 20 years.