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A massive snow dump on Mt Ruapehu is a welcome reprieve for the ski fields, but climate scientists say the outlook for future seasons will depend on businesses’ ability to adapt to warming temperatures.
Tūroa recently recorded the deepest snow base worldwide at 255cm on August 20, according to href="http://snow-forecast.com/" target="_blank">Snow-forecast.com.
Victoria University of Wellington Antarctic Research Centre researcher Dr Lauren Vargo said temperatures were still warming and, as that trend continued, there would be a lower percentage of rain that would fall as snow.
“Even when we do get snow, if it’s warmer and it melts more quickly, the snow duration will be shorter.”
Vargo said the maximum snow depth in a year would become smaller.
“Ski fields obviously have a certain adaptive capacity either to retreat higher up mountains or look to make snow, but the temperatures need to be cold enough for them to be able to make snow.”
Warm rain could melt snow and destroy snowbanks.
“It’s not just about whether it actually snows, it’s also about what the conditions are between snowfall events.”
Dean said there would still be snow on the mountain in the coming years and adaptive strategies of moving higher up the mountain or making more snow would allow ski fields to continue to operate.
But bad snow years would become more and more likely because of a lack of snow falling due to rain, or warm and wet conditions between snowfall events.
“There’s no escaping that.
“When your snow becomes more erratic, it’s harder to run a business that’s relying on annual turnover.”
Vargo said if the planet’s warming was limited to 2C, the outlook for skiing on Mt Ruapehu would be much better.
“Those different scenarios of what we do with emissions and the resulting warming will have a big impact on what the ski season looks like in the next decades.
“Part of it is totally up to us.”
Dean said the most realistic mitigation scenarios, where the planet warming managed to stay below 2C, would still mean a rise of another 0.8C.
“Beyond that, under the scenarios of 3 or 4 degrees warming, there would be a massive impact on our snow cover and glaciers.
“With climate change, it’s not that the end of the world comes, it’s that we lose a lot of what we value now, and if we value having snow on Mt Ruapehu and the opportunity to ski and enjoy that environment it’s going to be essential that we keep warming below 2C.”
Eva de Jong is a reporter for the Whanganui Chronicle covering health stories and general news. She began as a reporter in 2023.
